New Year's Day is coming, but the plasticizer market is still not good, regardless of the external negative or insufficient domestic demand, the market is obviously suppressed by negative factors, the plasticizer industry in 2018 is still mostly down, the market in 2019 is also difficult to have a good start, for the market for a long time to be weak, Zhongyu Information will make the following analysis.

Insufficient domestic demand, just need the situation will continue, for the stock is expected to be insufficient. Whether it is environmental protection and other external factors, or industry surplus, it is difficult to obtain profit internal factors, the production and sales of the terminal PVC soft products industry is not prosperous is a foregone conclusion, especially at this stage in winter, this is the off-season coupled with the implementation of anti-haze measures, the demand for plasticizers for terminal products will still show a shrinking state. Will usher in the New Year's Day holiday, but the market does not have the stock situation, and for the holiday before the stock is also expected to be insufficient, not only by the weak demand, but also by crude oil, futures fell sharply, the external bearish led to industry sentiment frustration, panic caused by, is expected to just need the situation, the plasticizer industry demand prospects will still be restricted.

Raw material butanol and phthalic anhydride are still expected to be reduced, not only for DOP, DBP cost transmission weakened, and the decline in raw material will accelerate the decline in plasticizer products. For DOP, basically in the annual loss state, the impact of cost transmission is obvious, but the recent downward trend of raw materials octanol and phthalic anhydride, especially octanol, has fallen to 8000 yuan/ton below the price, although orthophthalic anhydride has a certain resilience, but also negative decline, raw material decline aggravates the negative, but also based on loss pressure, DOP decline basically maintain negative decline rhythm. As far as DBP is concerned, there is a stage of stable profit acquisition cycle in 2018. Although the decline of butanol and naphthalene anhydride at this stage also leads to the decline of DBP, there is still a large margin of raw material yield and profit is maintained. For butanol and phthalic anhydride is still expected to decline, but the plasticizer's own cost pressure is difficult to eliminate, whether it is a loss or a small profit situation, will still lead to the conscious control of the business on the rhythm of the decline.

New Year's Day is coming, from the Spring Festival is also getting closer, for the Spring Festival in the early stage of the same lack of good expectations, whether it is a continuous decline in crude oil, caused by the general bearish sentiment, or 2018 industry losses are serious, to suppress the enthusiasm of the industry to participate in the market, or by the Spring Festival before the deadline and other measures, the market is still filled with more concentrated bearish. Although the industry is a variety of negative factors, but the long-term delivery is not smooth, there is also no shortage of certain replenishment, but most of the stage is obvious.

From propylene to butanoctyl alcohol, from o-xylene to o-phthalic anhydride, or from industrial naphthalene to naphthalene anhydride, and finally to DOP, DBP products, the whole is showing a decline, and the profit is also similar, loss or profit narrowing. Entering 2019, the early stage of the Spring Festival, the expectation is not good, the external negative, the lack of domestic demand has been continued, and the weak negative decline trend of plasticizer products is difficult to change.

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