MDI device has the characteristics of high barrier and high input. There are only 8 suppliers in the world, of which 5 giants, Wanhua Chemical, Covestro, BASF, Huntsman and Dow, account for more than 85% of the total capacity. Therefore, if one of them encounters force majeure and maintenance, the supply of global polymer MDI will be tight, which will further cause price volatility.

"Due to the easing of the epidemic situation in foreign countries and the rapid rise of MDI prices, Dow and South Korea have all flowed to Europe, and China's import source has decreased. On the other hand, the Chinese manufacturers control the goods and support the price, and the market circulation of goods has dropped sharply, resulting in the strong rise of MDI prices." Huang Haixia said.

Intense atmosphere of speculation

"MDI belongs to the oligarch industry, the product rise and fall basically do not look at raw materials, mainly look at the market supply and demand game. As long as the market supply is tight, the trade link began to hype. This wave of rising market started in mid-July, the price rose from 11,300 to 11,900 yuan to the high of 13,500 to 14,200 yuan on August 8, a cumulative increase of 2,200 to 2,300 yuan, or 19.3% to 19.5%." Huang Haixia said.

Leading enterprises aggregate MDI listing is also the main factor of traders' speculation. According to the announcement of Wanhua Chemical, since August, the company's China region aggregate MDI distribution market listing price of 15,500 yuan, 1500 yuan higher than the price in July; The listed price of direct selling market is also 15,500 yuan, which is 1,000 yuan higher than the price in July.

Wanhua Chemical is the largest MDI manufacturing enterprise in the Asia-Pacific region, with a designed MDI production capacity of 2.3 million tons/year and an annual operating capacity of 1.8 million tons, accounting for 22.5% of global production capacity and 58% of China's production capacity, both ranking first. The increase in the listed price of MDI of Wanhua Chemical Polymerization has played a role in promoting the market. At the same time, the listing price of BASF's polymerization MDI to dealers in August was increased by 1,000 yuan from July to 15,500 yuan; The listing price of Shanghai Huntsman MDI distribution market in August also increased by 1,000 yuan to 15,500 yuan.

"Suppliers put news to pull up is to stimulate the market, the purpose is to stabilize the market and stop falling, while using this way to consume downstream inventory, thus strengthening the power of the supplier later trading. Buoyed by the maintenance news of the supplier's device, the aggregate MDI market atmosphere is good, traders are in a strong mood to stir up, and the price is expected to rise." Longzhong Information MDI analyst Zheng Nan said.

positive downstream demand

polymerization MDI are widely used in the production of polyurethane hard foam products. Normally, 1 ton of polyurethane rigid foam requires 1 ton of polymerized MDI and 0.3 tons of F141B blowing agent." On August 15, the on-demand trading rhythm of F141B blowing agent in North China and Shandong region did not change, and the reference price of 24,000 to 25,000 yuan in barrels or sent to the negotiation was the same as in the previous period. Hard foam polyether cost support is still strong, in the absence of sufficient raw material inventory, enterprises still have some just need to purchase, it is expected that the short-term hard bubble market will continue to follow the raw material stock slightly up the possibility." Zheng Nan said.

From the downstream of the terminal, refrigerators and freezers are the largest consumer market of aggregate MDI, accounting for about 58% of the total consumption. With the easing of the epidemic situation abroad, the accumulated export orders of foreign trade are gradually released, and the export market of refrigerators and freezers is improving. The customers of China's large refrigerator manufacturers are basically direct suppliers, and the production and marketing have been maintained well. Beginning in August, external wall and pipeline insulation materials will also enter the traditional peak season, and the demand will increase, which is expected to bring support to the MDI market.