China Purchasing Managers Index for August 2024 released by the National Bureau of Statistics
On August 31, 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, interpreted it.
In August, the manufacturing purchasing managers index was 49.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.1%, down slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the overall level of China's economic prosperity remained stable.
The manufacturing purchasing managers index fell slightly
Affected by factors such as recent high temperatures and heavy rains and the off-season production of some industries, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1% in August, and the prosperity level fell.
(I) Both production and demand slowed down. The production index and new order index were 49.8% and 48.9% respectively, down 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and both the production of manufacturing enterprises and market demand slowed down. From the perspective of industry, the production index and new order index of food, wine, beverage, refined tea, railway, ship, aerospace equipment, electrical machinery and equipment are all above 54.0%, with rapid growth in production and demand; the production index and new order index of chemical fiber, rubber and plastic products, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, special equipment and other industries have been below the critical point for two consecutive months, and both supply and demand are weak.
(II) High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries return to the expansion range. From the perspective of key industries, the PMI of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries are 51.7% and 51.2% respectively, up 2.3 and 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range; the PMI of consumer goods industry is 50.0%, at the critical point; the PMI of high-energy-consuming industry is 46.4%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. The weak prosperity level of high-energy-consuming industries and the large decline are one of the main reasons for the decline of manufacturing PMI this month.
(III) The price index continues to decline. Affected by factors such as insufficient demand and price fluctuations of bulk commodities such as crude oil, coal, and iron ore, the purchasing price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 43.2% and 42.0%, respectively, down 6.7 and 4.3 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of industry, the purchasing price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials in industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing fell sharply, and the overall level of market prices in related industries declined.
(IV) PMI of large enterprises maintained expansion. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.4%, down slightly by 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. It has always been above the critical point this year and has continued to play a supporting and leading role. The PMI of medium and small enterprises was 48.7% and 46.4%, down 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the production and operation pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises has increased.
The expansion of the non-manufacturing business activity index has slightly accelerated
In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the prosperity has slightly rebounded.
(I) The business activity index of the service industry rose to the expansion range. The business activity index of the service industry was 50.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, rising above the critical point. From the perspective of industry, the summer consumption has a significant driving effect. The business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, postal service, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, culture, sports and entertainment industries are all in the high prosperity range of more than 55.0%, and the total business volume has maintained a rapid growth; the business activity index of capital market services, real estate, resident services and other industries continues to be in the contraction range, and the market activity is weak. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 55.4%, which is still in the high prosperity range. Among them, the business activity expectation index of postal service, telecommunications, radio, television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services and other industries is in the high prosperity range of more than 60.0%, and enterprises are more optimistic about the development of related industries.
(II) The business activity index of the construction industry maintained expansion. The business activity index of the construction industry was 50.6%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and still in the expansion range, indicating that the expansion of construction production and construction in the construction industry slowed down due to unfavorable factors such as high temperature and rainy weather. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 54.7%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the confidence of construction companies in the recent market development has increased.
The composite PMI output index remained basically unchanged
In August, the composite PMI output index was 50.1%, down slightly by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be in the expansion range, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese companies maintained a slight expansion. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that constitute the composite PMI output index were 49.8% and 50.3% respectively.
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