Aggregate MDI market "gold nine" full, mainstream negotiation price in 23,800 ~ 24,000 yuan (ton price, the same below), compared with the end of August increased by about 4000 yuan. In October, the aggregate MDI market began to correction, but the price has been hovering around 22,000 yuan, still in the high area of the year.

after the market, the supply continues to be tight, the cost support is still in, but the downstream demand is limited, it is expected that the short-term aggregate MDI market or high finishing, the risk of a sharp fall is not big.

Supply to maintain tight

Shandong Institute of Industry and Information Technology professor senior engineer Pan Jinsong said that after the National Day, the main supplier factory guidance prices, but the increase is not strong, more conservative stable market attitude. Some dealers actively shipped at low prices, increasing bearish sentiment in the market, low prices have been heard.

From the supply point of view, the current aggregate MDI overall operating rate is relatively stable. Affected by the maintenance of the mother liquor unit of Lianheng Phase I, the Shanghai BASF unit is running at a negative rate; In the maintenance of some units of Dongcao in Japan, the supply of mother liquor was reduced, while the load of Dongcao unit of Rui 'an was low. The average starting load of polymerization MDI in China is about 71%.

" There is news that Shanghai Lianheng phase I MDI mother liquor device restarts around October 20, and Shanghai Huntsman parking maintenance device in early October will restart in mid-to-late October. If the above two sets of devices restart, the supply will increase, or bring adverse effects to the aggregate MDI market." Pan Jinsong analyzed.

However, aggregate MDI exports remained strong, resolving the pressure of supply and sales in the Chinese market. Data show that in the first 8 months, China's aggregate MDI exports as high as 700,000 tons, is expected to exceed 1 million tons in the whole year, compared with the export volume of 600,000 tons in previous years to achieve a substantial increase.

Industry insiders said that at present, aggregate MDI manufacturers have a strong desire to control goods, coupled with strong exports, it is expected that the short-term oversupply situation is difficult to appear, and the market is mainly dominated by high consolidation.

Cost support is still in

From the raw material aniline point of view, the recent market deduces the overall upward trend, forming support for the cost of polymerization MDI.

After the National Day, Nanhua 100,000 tons/year, Jilin Cornell 180,000 tons/year aniline device restart; Shanxi Tianji equipment load reduced due to raw material transportation problems; Yantai Wanhua device also reduces the load, reduce the external commodities; Jiangsu Yangnong device load to 60%; Dongying Jinling device due to power limit load reduced to about 70%. On the whole, the spot supply of aniline in China has been greatly reduced, which has brought good news to the market. At present, China's aniline has surged strongly, and North China's negotiating spot price has risen to 13,000 yuan; East China negotiated acceptance price up to 13,500 yuan.

Then look at the demand, the downstream auxiliary terminal tire demand is better, antioxidants are also actively rising raw materials aniline, the cost transmission of the industrial chain is good as a whole.

Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, said that raw materials such as aniline and cyclohexanamine supply is tight, and under the strong support of the cost side, accelerant enterprises cover the plate to spare, and the overall market is pushing up the atmosphere. Antioxidant, acetone, methyl isobutanone (MIBK) to maintain a high shock, the cost side is still supported, and more export orders, suppliers strong to raise the shipping price, the market gradually with the rise, the aniline market increased the momentum, is also expected to bring cost support to polymerization MDI.

Demand drag

Although the supply side and the cost side of the positive, but the polymerization MDI downstream demand "cold and warm" is different, which bearish dominate, affecting the raw material market rebound height.

From the downstream hard foam polyether point of view, the price of raw materials propylene oxide support superposition the active construction consumption in the north during the peak season, the fundamental support is slightly better, and the focus of market trading has moved up. However, the downstream industry affected by high black materials and other small materials cost to start still have some inhibition, the demand for hard foam polyether procurement of enterprises is also concentrated after the National Day, the current look at the new single transaction also has a gradual shrinkage trend, the terminal enterprise procurement only to just need to order a small number of maintenance.

In terms of downstream operating rate, the operating rate of the hard bubble polyether industry has increased slightly compared with that before the National Day, and is currently running to about 54%. Before the National Day and in the north of the festival due to intermittent peak production, the start of the hard bubble factory has resumed, but after the festival, the energy consumption and emission reduction are again affected, the start is limited, and the load of many hard foam polyether devices is still not high.

" Although the north wall insulation and pipeline industry consumption is still good, plate, solar energy and home appliances and other industries are stable, supporting the basic needs of hard foam polyether. However, with the weather gradually turning cold in the later period, after the heating in the north began, the external wall and pipeline projects will gradually end, and it is difficult to drive the increase in the demand for hard bubble polyether." Wang Quanping analysis said.

In addition, the year-on-year decline in auto production and sales has widened since August. On the one hand, the supply of chip production is tight, and the shortage of chips in enterprises is further aggravated. On the other hand, short-term market volatility caused by the switching of emissions regulations continues to affect truck demand. Refrigerator sales also showed a sharp decline, which will limit the rally height of polymerization MDI in the future.