The historic day of Brexit is over, and we are entering a new beginning. "In the early morning of February 1, British Joe Mooney sat in a bar in central London with his friends and toasted to celebrate.

At 23:00 local time on January 31, the United Kingdom officially left the European Union. Early that morning, Mooney and his friends drove from their residence a hundred kilometers away to Parliament Square in central London, wearing the British Union Jack and staying there for the whole day to "commemorate this big day."

It was also from this moment that the United Kingdom entered the transition period of Brexit. According to current arrangements, the transition period will end at the end of 2020. During this period, the United Kingdom will lose its membership in the European Union, but will still need to abide by EU rules and pay EU budget fees. The negotiation of UK-EU relations, especially the bilateral trade agreement, has become a It is a priority on the UK's "list" of future tasks.

British Prime Minister Johnson said in a televised speech on the evening of January 31 that Brexit Day is not an end, but a beginning. This sentence is very vivid to describe the UK in the transition period. Because the British Parliament has legislated to prohibit the extension of the transition period, many parties believe that it is more difficult than imagined for the UK and the EU to reach a trade agreement that both sides are satisfied with within 11 months. Negotiations in areas such as fisheries, aviation, medicine, and security are even more difficult.

"After the transition period, the UK will be able to develop more free trade partners without being bound by EU terms everywhere," Mooney said. "Although the future is not a smooth road, I believe the government is capable of negotiating well."

However, the arrival of this day means unbearable pain for some others.

"Due to the uncertainty of Brexit, it has been almost five months and my house has not been sold. "John Shirley, a freight forwarder who has worked in the British port city of Dover for more than 20 years, told reporters. He believes that Brexit will have an impact on Dover's freight industry, so he plans to sell his company and house and leave the UK. "There are more than 10,000 trucks entering and leaving Dover every day. After Brexit, the customs clearance procedures are cumbersome. Each vehicle may be stranded for days instead of minutes. This is no joke! "The gray-haired Shirley said worriedly.

Trade negotiations are of paramount importance in the negotiations between the UK and the EU. Whether a tariff-free free trade agreement can be reached within 11 months is related to the fate of thousands of companies. If the negotiations are not ideal, the food and beverage, automobile manufacturing and other industries will be hit first.

Mike Hawes, CEO of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Dealers, believes that the UK should reach a free trade agreement with the EU as soon as possible. Otherwise, the industry may face huge tariffs when trading under the framework of the WTO. Affected by Brexit, UK automobile production has declined for three consecutive years.

Colin Reinfors, CEO of a British export food and beverage company, told reporters, "The UK is ready to complete an agreement that others have taken several years to reach in 11 months, which means we are likely to lose the large EU market. We are currently increasing our layout in the US and Chinese markets. ¡±

However, for most British people, this day is just an ordinary weekend. "After so many years, I am now tired of the word "Brexit", said Alistair, a 70-year-old man, basking in the sun in front of a cafe, "We have come to this point, so let's look forward."

After about three and a half years, several extensions and multiple rounds of negotiations, a long and painful "long-distance race" has come to an end. However, this is not the end, and what awaits Britain will be the starting point of another "marathon".

How to negotiate relations with the EU after the "breakup"

A British government official revealed on February 1 that in terms of trade relations, Prime Minister Boris Johnson intends to consider reaching a looser trade agreement with the European Union, so that he does not have to fully comply with the EU's various trade rules.

According to the official, "There are only two possible outcomes of the negotiations, one is a free trade agreement like Canada, and the other is a loose agreement like Australia. We are happy to see any of them. ¡±

The UK officially left the EU on January 31, withdrawing from the regional integration organization after 47 years. Johnson is expected to give a speech on UK-EU trade relations on February 3.

Johnson previously said that his main goal was to reach a free trade agreement with the EU like the one with Canada before the end of the Brexit transition period at the end of the year. However, British officials stated on the 1st that Johnson seemed to have changed his attitude and was increasingly unwilling to succumb to pressure and make concessions in exchange for a deal with the EU.

In any case, after the transition period, British companies exporting goods and services to the EU will no longer enjoy the convenience of unimpeded access to the EU single market as before, but will have to pay taxes to EU member states. Some EU leaders have said in advance: Once the "breakup" occurs, the UK can no longer enjoy the EU's "membership "treatment." Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator for Brexit, is negotiating with EU member states to draft a negotiation plan to set rules for future trade across the English Channel. It is expected that the various objectives of the draft negotiation plan will be released on the 3rd. Barnier has always taken the lead in negotiating specific "divorce agreements" with the UK in the past. Today, in the eyes of the EU, the UK is a "third country" like Canada or Singapore. Britain, which has left the EU, faces more than one EU, so the Johnson government has been seeking greater autonomy and flexibility and is unwilling to be tied to the EU as a trading partner. In the trade agreement between Canada and the EU, Canada does not have to abide by the EU's trade rules. However, given the huge trade volume and close trade relations between the EU and the UK, some EU member states are unwilling to Give the UK similar treatment, allowing it to act on its own labor and environmental standards.

According to Reuters, the UK's standards in some areas actually far exceed EU standards, such as minimum wage, maternity leave and the ban on single-use plastics.

Trade policy during the Brexit transition period faces challenges

The UK officially "left the EU" and entered the transition period, which will end on December 31, 2020. Experts believe that it will be a huge challenge and full of uncertainty for the UK to reach trade agreements with major trading partners such as the EU and the United States in less than a year.

As for the EU, experts predict that the UK and the EU are expected to reach a basic free trade agreement involving zero tariffs and zero quotas on goods by the end of the year.

The UK Amar Breckenridge, an international trade policy expert at the Economic Frontier Consulting Company, believes that the negotiation goal between the UK and the EU before the end of the year will be to reach a basic free trade agreement, giving each other tariff-free and quota-free market access, covering customs measures, rules of origin, etc.

He believes that in addition to the basic free trade agreement, the UK and the EU need to resolve other more complex issues through agreements and other forms. The two sides have major differences in areas such as fisheries and financial services, and the possibility of reaching a comprehensive trade agreement within a limited time is low.

Sam Lowe, a senior researcher at the Center for European Reform, believes that it is possible for the UK and the EU to reach a free trade agreement before the end of the year, but the UK may face a series of preconditions proposed by the EU, including allowing the EU to enter its fishing waters, promising not to lower environmental and labor standards, and complying with state aid laws.

In addition to the UK-EU trade negotiations, during the Brexit transition period, the free trade arrangements that the UK enjoys with Canada, Japan and other countries as an EU member state also need to be transferred, otherwise trade with these countries will face a "no agreement" status at the end of the year.

Breckinridge believes that "continuation" free trade agreement negotiations with trading partners such as Canada and Japan are a top priority. He said that the challenge of "continuation" trade negotiations is that these trading partners lack the motivation to immediately start negotiations with the UK, and some trading partners may decide the negotiation conditions with the UK based on the results of the UK-EU trade negotiations.

At the same time, experts predict that the UK will simultaneously advance trade negotiations with the United States, Australia, New Zealand and other countries, among which the UK-US trade negotiations are the top priority.

Breckinridge believes that given that the UK-US trade agreement will place high demands on the UK's negotiating capabilities, it is unlikely that the two countries will reach an agreement before the end of the year. He believes that the two sides may achieve goals such as mutual recognition of service industry standards, promotion of investment and business facilitation measures through political statements and other forms.

This group of texts/Xinhua News Agency

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