As Japan's "island purchase" farce continues to ferment, the impact on normal economic and trade relations between China and Japan is beginning to appear. In the past two days, the factories of some Japanese companies such as Panasonic and Canon in China have temporarily suspended operations, and the Japanese company Huatang Shopping Center in Beijing has also temporarily closed its operations. What impact will the island purchase farce have on Japanese companies in China? Will Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations reach a freezing point? How should all parties rationally view the impact of China-Japan economic and trade relations? CCTV Financial Channel host Shen Zhu, special commentator Ma Yu from the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, and famous financial commentator Liu Ge jointly commented.

Japan¡¯s ¡°island purchase¡± farce has affected Sino-Japanese economic and trade. Canon and Panasonic¡¯s factories in China have temporarily suspended operations; in Japan, Chinese tourists have dropped sharply. Will Japan suffer economic losses if it plays with fire?

Japan staged a farce of "island purchase", which gradually revealed the impact of Sino-Japanese economic and trade, which has been growing steadily. At Canon Zhuhai Co., Ltd. on Jiuzhou Avenue in Zhuhai City, the reporter saw on the 17th that the gate of the factory area was closed, and no employees were seen entering or leaving the factory after waiting for a long time. The factory area was very quiet, and there was no roar of machines in the workshop. There were only a few security guards between the east and south gates of the area.

Reporter: Are you on vacation these two days?

Security: Yes, everyone is on holiday. I haven't been to work these two days.

Reporter: When do you go to work?

Security: The day after tomorrow.

Reporter: I will go to work the day after tomorrow.

Reporter (Yao Jiahao): I found an emergency notice at the door of Canon. The notice states that from September 17th to September 18th, all employees will have two days off, and then everyone will return to work as normal on September 19th.

When reporters asked about the reason for the holiday. A security guard at Canon Zhuhai Company said that the company did not explain. He speculated that the anti-Japanese sentiment among some workers triggered by the Diaoyu Islands incident may be one of the reasons. On the 17th, reporters saw near the Canon Suzhou site that many Canon employees living in the site did not go to work, but appeared on the side of the road in twos and threes. This holiday came in a hurry, and the site did not even give a decent written notice. No. Some Japanese supermarkets and shops have also been closed for the past two days. A notice was posted at the entrance of Huatang Shopping Mall on Chaoyang Road in Beijing. Due to equipment failure, maintenance will be required from September 17th to 18th. The suspended business also brings inconvenience to the surrounding markets.

Citizen: I come here almost every week for shopping, shopping, and so on. And if you say it is closed now, I don¡¯t know, it is like a wasted trip and you have to go somewhere else.

At present, all eight Huatang shopping malls in Beijing have been closed, and other restaurants, gyms and other ancillary shops in the Huatang shopping mall have also been closed. The Shanghai reporter came to Xianxiaxi, where there is a large concentration of Japanese personnel in China. Road, there are many Japanese restaurants here, as well as singing, shopping and other entertainment venues, but the doors of these large and small restaurants are closed and it is dark inside.

Reporter: Is it turned off during the day and turned on at night?

Shanghai citizens: It seems that one store is not open. It seems that this one is not open at night, and the one next to us is closed.

Reporter: How is business?

Shanghai citizens: It¡¯s open, but there¡¯s no business anymore. I saw there was no business at Ajisen Ramen yesterday.

Due to poor business recently, many restaurants are closed during the day. It didn't open until 6 or 7 o'clock in the evening to stay in business. Some stores even use plastic sheets to cover areas containing Japanese characters at the entrance of their stores. At night, the plastic sheeting is removed and the business resumes normally.

In Japan, there are such scenes.

Reporter (Zhang Haoyu): This is Tokyo's Akihabara Electrical Appliance Street, where Chinese tourists are usually concentrated. Due to the current impact of the Diaoyu Islands, the number of Chinese tourists here is gradually decreasing. So what is the expected impact? During the National Day Golden Week, there will be a more obvious performance.

Akihabara is a famous electrical appliance street in Tokyo, Japan. Many electrical appliance stores here have China UnionPay logos, and some even say tax-free in Chinese. Welcome to our store and have Chinese services, all in order to attract China tourists. In Akihabara, we often see Chinese groups coming to shop, but now shop assistants here revealed that there are far fewer Chinese tourists coming to shop, and they are worried that this impact will be more serious during the National Day Golden Week.

Sakai (Japanese store owner): I don¡¯t know how much I will lose, but it is obvious that there are far fewer Chinese customers this week. Chinese customers usually come early in the morning to buy things. So, if there were no customers in the morning, there will be no customers today. Generally speaking, the number of customers in China is decreasing.

Liu Ge: On the one hand, the losses belong to Japanese companies and on the other hand, they are borne by Chinese employees

(Commentator of "CCTV Financial Review")

Take Canon as an example. This company currently produces 30% of the world's color copiers. It is currently closed for two days. If the shutdown lasts longer, it will affect the global supply of color copiers. Canon's business in China has been growing at an annual rate of 30% over the past few years, which is a very good performance in this field. Therefore, Canon's president Mitarai Fukushima once said that without China, there would be no Japanese economy. This may be said on certain occasions for a certain atmosphere, but to a certain extent, as far as its enterprises are concerned, it is indeed This is the truth. Now because of their wrong decision, the company has been affected. On the one hand, this loss belongs to the company. In addition, if over time, Canon's global 110,000 employees include 30,000 Chinese employees, this will also be a loss for them. In the past two days, I even saw that the barber shop downstairs also put up a notice stating that they refuse to use Japanese shampoo and hair care products during this period. Therefore, from large companies to such a small service industry, they will Because of such a thing, it ultimately affected the efficiency of Japanese companies.

At present, Japanese home appliance companies, which are already in difficulty, are experiencing very poor performance. Now they are trying to make a turnaround through some measures to stimulate marketing or the launch of new products. For example, Sharp TV recently coincided with the 100th anniversary of its founding. It originally had a large-scale marketing campaign, all the money was spent, and the plans were prepared, but it can't be done at this time. This is very direct for an enterprise. losses. Sony also has its new mirrorless products and some electronic products to be released. Now due to the impact of this incident, the release time will also be delayed. Therefore, for some such companies, they have already shown weakness in the industry competition in the past one or two years, and now they may be even worse.

Ma Yu: The current situation will continue and it may just be the beginning

(Special commentator of "CCTV Financial Review")

< p>If the situation continues to develop, it will have a great impact on Japan's advantageous industries. The electronic information industry we see includes machinery and equipment manufacturing, automobiles, fine chemicals, commercial retail, and even some service industries such as finance and insurance, because Japan has relatively strong advantages in these fields and is China's investment is also relatively large, and it should be said that it has a very large impact on this.

I think the situation may last for a long time, and it may have just begun, because now, we see that the Japanese side is still taking actions, and there is no sign of correcting its mistakes. In this case, it will inevitably The long-term development of Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations will have a profound impact, and economic and trade cooperation in these industries will definitely be affected in the long term.

Ma Yu: The Chinese market is even more important to Japanese companies amid the global downturn

(Special commentator of "CCTV Financial Review")

From Japan's perspective, the Chinese market is one of the main destinations for Japanese companies' overseas investment. So far, the stock of Japanese companies' investment in China is approximately more than 5 trillion US dollars. At present, the annual investment scale is about 50 trillion US dollars, and about 5% of Japan's foreign investment is in the Chinese market. And there is another very interesting thing, which is the impact of the financial crisis in recent years. It should be said that global cross-border investment is relatively quiet, but Japanese companies' investment in China is growing rapidly. For example, from January to July this year, Japan¡¯s investment in China was nearly US$5 billion, an increase of nearly 20% over the same period last year. This actually shows that the more the global economic downturn occurs, the more important the Chinese market becomes to Japanese companies. After all, China's market is the fastest growing, and the return on investment in China is the highest. For example, in 2011, Toyota's total global sales volume was 7.95 million units, but its sales in China were 880,000 units, which basically accounted for 11% of its total sales. However, its profits in China exceed 10 billion yuan, while its global profits are 3.6 billion US dollars, and its profits in China are nearly 2 billion US dollars, which means more than half. This is particularly precious to enterprises.

Liu Ge: The Japanese economy is to a large extent tied to the Chinese economy

(Commentator of "CCTV Financial Review")

One thing that makes Japanese investment in China different from other countries is that China is a production base for Japanese companies, and it is also a sales market. For example, Dongfeng Nissan, Nissan's largest joint venture in China, sold 1.24 million vehicles last year. Nissan's global sales were more than 4.8 million vehicles. Dongfeng Nissan accounted for 25% of world sales, and this quarter All the cars were sold in China, and a large number of original parts from Japanese manufacturers were purchased, including engines, gearboxes, etc. During the 3.11 earthquake in Japan, there was a period of time when demand for some high-end Japanese cars was in short supply. Why? It was due to the earthquake in Japan that some of its original factories were damaged, so its engines and gearboxes could not be produced, and the Chinese market was damaged. Therefore, if Japanese companies in China suffer losses, their losses will be multifaceted. On the one hand, they will lose share, on the other hand, they will lose profits. Their entire employment in Japanese factories will also be damaged. To be honest, the Japanese economy is tied to the Chinese economy to a large extent, so for these companies, the Japanese government's policies are actually harming these Japanese companies.

Ma Yu: Economic sanctions may become a choice we have to make

(Special commentator of "CCTV Financial Review")

Economic sanctions are one of the options, and may be a very likely option, because at present, for China, territorial issues are our core interests. In this regard, it is impossible for us to give in, and We cannot completely limit this terminal to the territorial aspect, and it will inevitably extend to this kind of Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations. For us, we have no choice, that is to say, we do not want to affect economic and trade exchanges, but this is also a necessary solution. Or even if the government may not take some economic sanctions or some trade retaliation measures, purely from the perspective of citizens and consumers, it will have a profound impact on the economic and trade relations between the two countries. In the field of Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations, we must make various preparations. Of course we do not want to go through economic sanctions or fight a trade war, but there may be times when the situation develops to a certain extent, which may be a problem for us. A necessary choice.

Liu Ge: The biggest loss is Japan¡¯s investment interests in China

(Commentator of "CCTV Financial Review")

If we force each other into a corner in the end, the biggest loss will be Japan¡¯s investment interests in China. These companies have been entangled with the Chinese market for a long time, and their market and even part of their research and development have been compromised. It is already in the Chinese market, so if things develop further, there may be situations we have not seen before. From another perspective, these problems may be resolved due to, for example, the change of Japan's regime or other factors. Therefore, how this political situation changes actually depends on Japan's attitude. If both of us can sit down and talk, Japan can understand the situation. Then we can completely allow the economies of the two countries to continue to develop smoothly in the current state of interdependence and mutual benefit.

Jiang Ruiping: As the situation on the Diaoyu Islands worsens, Sino-Japanese financial cooperation will further deteriorate

(Vice President of the China Foreign Affairs University, "CCTV Special commentator of "Financial Review")

The first is trade, because Japan's current economic recovery still mainly relies on foreign trade, and the growth of foreign trade mainly relies on China, or exports to China. Exports to China now account for 20% of Japan's total exports. As Sino-Japanese economic relations further deteriorate, Japan's exports, especially exports to China, will definitely be severely affected. Secondly, it will affect the two-way investment between China and Japan, including Japanese investment in China. At present, we have noticed that the business of many Japanese companies in China has been very seriously affected. The stagnation of two-way investment affects enterprises on both sides. Especially the impact on Japanese companies is very serious. The third is tourism. Many important tours to Japan or tour groups to China are currently at a standstill or have canceled their orders. Tourism is currently an important factor in stimulating consumption in China for Japan. Fourth, it is mainly about cooperation between the two sides in terms of finance. Japan¡¯s current fiscal and financial situation is very bad. Under such circumstances, China's financial support to Japan has become an important factor in Japan's maintenance of fiscal and financial stability. As the situation on the Diaoyu Islands worsens, Sino-Japanese financial cooperation will also further expand. The deterioration has also had a great impact on Japan's fiscal and financial stability.

Liu Ge: The trade war between China and Japan is too costly

(Commentator of "CCTV Financial Review")

In fact, changes How, it's really hard to say now, but what are the factors that will lead us to see this change? In this, the attitude of the United States is a very important factor; in addition, the development momentum of the entire global economy is one of the important influencing factors. With the combined influence of these factors, I think it is possible for things to change for the better or for the worse. For China and Japan, if a trade war or a deeper dispute or conflict really starts, the cost will be too high for both sides.

Ma Yu: It will have a greater impact on the international economic and trade pattern

(Special commentator of "CCTV Financial Review")

It may have a relatively large impact on the international economic and trade pattern. In fact, there may be some changes from the perspective of trade and investment. For example, industrial transfer, or a financial situation in the market. For Japan, for example, in areas such as electronic information, or mechanical equipment manufacturing, including automotive chemical industry, etc.

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