Since May, the upstream market of refined terephteric acid (PTA) industry chain has been trending well. As of June 6, the price of paraxylene (PX) has increased by 14.61% compared with the beginning of May, and the price of PTA has increased by 11.28% compared with the beginning of May. The downstream polyester end is affected by weak terminal demand, the industry operating rate is low, the producer inventory is relatively high, and the production and sales performance is relatively light. Overall, PTA industry chain top-down cost transmission is not smooth.

For the future market, many market participants believe that with the high international crude oil prices, the cost support is stable, the upstream market of the industrial chain is expected to continue to rise, and the downstream polyester market is expected to be weak due to the uncertainty of terminal demand.

PX: shock up the loss to profit

May, with the strong shock of international crude oil, superimposed more maintenance of foreign PX equipment, in the case of reduced imports, PX price shock upward, production enterprises after experiencing up to 2 years of losses to achieve a profit.

Since the beginning of this year, with the market price rising, the PX production enterprises of the naphtha processing route began to narrow the loss range in March, hover around the profit and loss cost line in April, and the profit increased significantly in May. Jin Lianchuang chemical analyst Bian Chenhui believes that the main reason for PX enterprises to turn a profit is that the United States adjustment of oil demand is good, but the local aromatics device load is low, Southeast Asia PX began to transport to the United States, resulting in tight supply in the Asian market, PX prices along the way. In the case of the naphtha - PX price spread continues to widen, the profits of production enterprises have improved significantly. On June 6, the market reference price of PX was 10,200 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 14.61 percent from the beginning of May; The market reference price of naphtha was 8,513.25 yuan, up 4.67% from the beginning of May.

For the future market trend, Bian Chenhui believes that the PX market will continue to run strongly, and the industry profit may continue to improve, but there is little room for substantial improvement. In particular, under the expectation that several sets of maintenance devices in China will be restarted one after another, the supply of PX market will be greatly increased in the later period, the tight situation between supply and demand will be improved, and the profits of production enterprises will return to a reasonable level one after another.

PTA: Low processing fee and low operating rate

Under the strong upward trend of PX market price, the cost pressure of PTA manufacturers is greater, and the processing fee is gradually nibbled, reaching the low range of the year. In the future market, under the condition of increasing maintenance devices, the high probability will continue to strengthen with the cost end.

Since May, the PTA market has maintained an upward trend. On June 6, the PTA market reference price was 7152.18 yuan, 11.28% higher than the beginning of May. Jin Lianchuang chemical analyst Qiu Qianqian believes that this round of PTA market rise comes from the PX cost side boost. However, in the case of depressed terminal orders, the operating rate of the downstream polyester industry remains low, and the weak demand side weakens the cost support of the raw material side to a certain extent, so the upward momentum of PTA prices is smaller, and the rise is significantly weaker than the PX end.

In the case of the upstream and downstream game, although the PTA market price continues to rise, the increase is less than the cost end, the profit margin of the production enterprises is constantly compressed, most of the losses are more serious, and some of the main factories perform annual maintenance. Nu Xin Fengming Group Co., LTD. 2.5 million tons/year equipment will be stopped and repaired on May 25, which is expected to last about 15 days; Luoyang Petrochemical Company's 330,000 tons/year plant was stopped and repaired for 1 month on May 25; Zhejiang Yisheng New Materials Co., LTD. 7.2 million tons/year device down to 80%. In addition, Ningbo Taihua 1.2 million tons/year plant, Sanfang Lane 1.2 million tons/year plant, Yisheng Ningbo 2 million tons/year plant and Honggang Petrochemical 1.5 million tons/year plant are all in a shutdown state, and the restart time is to be determined.

Overall, the current cost side support is still stable, PTA in the case of low processing fees, low operating rate, strong resistance, the market price or with the cost side continue to strengthen.

Polyester: production and sales light prospects are not good

At present, the operating rate of the polyester industry is not high, the inventory of production enterprises is high, and the overall production and sales are not prosperous. In the absence of obvious favorable support, the downstream only maintain just need to replenish, the future market situation is not optimistic.

In May, the polyester market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was slightly light, and the overall production and sales rate fell to 38.2%. At the same time, due to the outbreak of the epidemic in Shaoxing Keqiao District on May 22, China Textile city market was closed, which made the terminal demand that had been continuously weak "worse". In terms of inventory, the epidemic has led to shrinking terminal demand, and production enterprises have endured greater inventory pressure. At present, the overall inventory of the polyester industry is concentrated for 27 to 30 days. Among them, the polyester POY inventory is 26 to 32 days, the polyester FDY inventory is 22 to 27 days, and the polyester DTY inventory is 25 to 28 days, all at a relatively high level.

Although the polyester terminal textile market demand improved in May, the sudden rise in raw material prices compressed profit margins. In the case of high inventory, polyester enterprises still have the possibility of reducing negative production, further increasing the expectation of weakening.