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On the last trading day of the Year of the Dragon, the two markets ended in the red. So at the end of the Year of the Dragon, how much can we expect from the first trading day of the Year of the Snake? Are we looking forward to a good start?

Statistical Bureau: CPI in January 2013 increased by 2% year-on-year

In January 2013, China's overall consumer price index rose by 2.0% year-on-year. Among them, the urban price index rose by 2.0%, and the rural price index rose by 2.2%; the food price rose by 2.9%, and the non-food price rose by 1.6%; the consumer goods price rose by 2.0%, and the service price rose by 2.2%.

In January, China's overall consumer price index rose by 1.0% month-on-month. Among them, the urban price index rose by 1.0%, and the rural price index rose by 1.2%; the food price rose by 2.8%, and the non-food price rose by 0.1%; the consumer goods price rose by 1.2%, and the service price rose by 0.4%.

China's import and export growth rates both rebounded in January

The General Administration of Customs announced the import and export situation of foreign trade in January today. In January, China's exports were US$187.37 billion, up 25%; imports were US$158.22 billion, up 28.8%, both of which were significantly higher than that in December last year and higher than market expectations.

Previously, according to the median forecast of Reuters' survey of 25 institutions, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in January was expected to be 17%; the growth rate of imports was expected to be 23.3%; and the trade surplus was expected to be US$22 billion.

In January this year, China's total import and export value was US$345.59 billion, up 26.7% year-on-year. The trade surplus was US$29.15 billion, an increase of 7.7%.

The General Administration of Customs said that there were 22 working days in January this year, while there were only 17 working days in the same period last year due to the long Spring Festival holiday. After removing the impact of the Spring Festival by seasonal adjustment, the total value of imports and exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 12.4% and imports increased by 3.4%.

In January, the trade surplus was 183.21 billion yuan, and exports increased by 25% year-on-year

In January, the export manager index of foreign trade growth increased

The General Administration of Customs announced the foreign trade import and export situation in January today. According to customs statistics, in January this year, China's total import and export value was 2.17 trillion yuan (equivalent to 345.59 billion US dollars), which increased by 26.7% year-on-year after deducting the exchange rate factor (the same below). Among them, exports were 1.18 trillion yuan (equivalent to 187.37 billion US dollars), an increase of 25%; imports were 0.99 trillion yuan (equivalent to 158.22 billion US dollars), an increase of 28.8%; and the trade surplus was 183.21 billion yuan (equivalent to 29.15 billion US dollars), an increase of 7.7%.

There were 22 working days in January this year, while there were only 17 working days in the same period last year due to the long Spring Festival holiday. After eliminating the impact of the Spring Festival factor through seasonal adjustment, the total value of imports and exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, of which exports increased by 12.4% and imports increased by 3.4%.

Imports and exports with major trading partners increased. In January, China's imports and exports with the EU were US$47.14 billion, an increase of 10.5%; imports and exports with the United States were US$43.72 billion, an increase of 23.4%; imports and exports with ASEAN were US$36.99 billion, an increase of 42.9%; imports and exports with Japan were US$25.05 billion, an increase of 10.3%. During the same period, mainland China's imports and exports with Hong Kong were US$33.4 billion, an increase of 83%.

Among the exported goods, the exports of mechanical and electrical products and traditional labor-intensive products increased simultaneously. In January, exports of mechanical and electrical products amounted to US$105.81 billion, an increase of 25.1%. Exports of seven categories of labor-intensive products, including textiles, clothing, luggage, footwear, toys, furniture, and plastic products, amounted to US$41.88 billion, up 24.6%.

Among imported goods, in January, 65.54 million tons of iron ore were imported, up 11%; 30.55 million tons of coal, up 56.3%; and 1.1 million tons of steel, up 20.5%. During the same period, 4.78 million tons of soybeans were imported, up 3.8%. In addition, 351,000 tons of copper were imported, down 15.2%; and 70,000 vehicles were imported, down 15.1%.

The General Administration of Customs also announced that in January 2013, the online questionnaire survey data of export enterprises showed that China's export manager index was 37.5, up 3.3 from December 2012, and the second consecutive month of month-on-month increase. Among them, the new export order index was 40.5, up 3.6; the export confidence index was 42.9, up 4.7; and the comprehensive cost index of export enterprises was 17.9, down 0.5. The continuous recovery of the Export Managers Index indicates that China's foreign trade exports in the first quarter are relatively optimistic.

The proportion of enterprises reflecting a year-on-year decrease in the amount of new orders has shrunk. The survey results show that 47.4% of enterprises reported a year-on-year decrease in the amount of new orders, a decrease of 5.1 percentage points from the previous month; 27% of enterprises reported an increase in the amount of new orders; and 25.6% of enterprises reported that the amount of new orders remained unchanged.

The proportion of enterprises that are pessimistic about exports in the next 2-3 months has dropped to 40%. The survey results show that 40.9% of enterprises are "not optimistic" about the export situation in the next 2-3 months, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from the previous month; 24% of enterprises are "optimistic".

The number of enterprises reflecting a year-on-year increase in the comprehensive cost of exports remains at 70%. The survey results show that 70.5% of enterprises reported a year-on-year increase in the comprehensive cost of exports, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; 24% of enterprises reported a year-on-year increase in the comprehensive cost of exports, and 5.5% of enterprises reported a year-on-year decrease in the comprehensive cost of exports.

From the survey of sub-items of costs, 72.2% and 53.5% of enterprises reported an increase in labor costs and exchange rate costs, which were 0.5 and 4.6 percentage points lower than the previous month, respectively; 52.7% of enterprises reported an increase in raw material costs, which was 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month.

The export manager index of small enterprises rebounded rapidly. In January, the export manager index of large, medium and small enterprises was 40.7, 38.4 and 35.4, respectively, up 1.9, 3.6 and 4.0 from the previous month, respectively.

Cao Heping: CPI in January is lower than expected and may remain at around 3% in the first half of the year

The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics today showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in January rose by 2.0% year-on-year, of which food prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year and fresh vegetable prices rose by 12.7% month-on-month. Cao Heping, professor of economics at Peking University, said in an interview with a reporter from China.com Finance Center that the CPI in January was slightly lower than expected, and the price level in the first half of the year should remain at around 3%.

Cao Heping said that the CPI rose by 2.0% year-on-year in January, which was slightly lower than expected. Food prices increased. Overall, prices were at a normal level. He analyzed that the 12.7% month-on-month increase in fresh vegetable prices was a seasonal price increase. Considering the cost factors and the increase in demand, this phenomenon was normal.

When talking about the price trend this year, Cao Heping said that the annual price increase this year will not exceed 4%, the CPI in February may be within 3%, and there may be a peak period of returns in March after the Spring Festival. Affected by this, prices may fall. In April, fertilizer and energy prices will rise due to the impact of agricultural spring ploughing. He believes that the price level in the first half of the year should remain at around 3%.

Cao Heping believes that there will be no major adjustments to monetary policy this year, and some changes may be made to monetary policy in the second half of the year. In general, monetary policy will continue last year's trend, but it will be slightly loose because there are factors that stimulate economic growth, and urbanization may accelerate money supply.

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