Two main lines of layout, 8 stocks recommended for the media industry

The economic recovery did not come as expected, and the industry recovery was lower than expected in both strength and sustainability

1) The advertising market grew by only 4.2% year-on-year in the first half of the year, far lower than the GDP growth rate of 7.8% and the growth rate of more than 10% in previous years. The fundamental reason is that the recovery of the real economy was aborted, which made the rebound of the advertising market from May to August weak and unsustainable. This downturn also exacerbated the differentiation of different media: the year-on-year growth rate of television advertising, which ranked first in scale, was only 4.7%, newspapers fell by 7.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate of the Internet reached 25.7%. 2) The TV drama industry has turned into a buyer's market, and prices are still hovering at a low point. The leading advantage of first-tier satellite TV stations is obvious, and the high concentration of online video channels has increased the bargaining power of the two channels. In addition, the purchasing behavior of both parties has slowed down significantly due to the growth of income. 3) The box office scale of movies exceeded 10 billion yuan ahead of schedule, but the interference of policies on the schedule has caused imported and domestic films to fight each other, and the Matthew effect is more prominent.

Industry difficulties have led to intensified differentiation, which is reflected in the sub-sectors and different companies in the same sector:

1) Industry differentiation: Internet new media companies have achieved outstanding performance, with an average growth rate of nearly 50%; while paper media has declined overall, with an average growth rate of negative 12% for the five listed companies, of which only one has positive growth; as new media occupies more user time, the growth of cable network companies is also unsatisfactory, with an average growth rate of only 7.3%; among marketing companies, comprehensive companies such as BlueFocus and Shengguang Holdings have also grown strongly. 2) Company differentiation: The difficulties in the film and television industry have led to more competitive advantages for leading companies, and listed companies are all industry leaders, with an average growth rate of more than 40%; the differentiation of the publishing industry is mainly based on differences in cross-regional expansion and integration capabilities. With an average growth rate of only 17%, companies that have successfully broken through regional restrictions, such as Phoenix Media and Anhui New Media, have a growth rate of more than 40%.

Differentiation is the theme of the future, and we should also pay attention to policy changes

When the industry is in a downturn, the Matthew effect is more obvious. It is the best time for market leaders to expand. In the future, only by focusing on emerging fields and sub-segment leaders can we enjoy benefits that exceed the industry. At the same time, the policy direction determines the future economic trend and the industry's ups and downs, and its importance in determining the market trend is increasing.

Key company recommendations:

Based on the above analysis, we will continue to select stocks based on two lines in the future: performance and policy changes. We recommend focusing on People's Daily Online and BlueFocus in the advertising field, Hualu Baina, Huace Film and Television, Huayi Brothers in the film and television field, and Tianzhou Culture, Phoenix Media and Zhongnan Media in the publishing field. (Qilu Securities)

Chemical Industry: The worst moment of the industry may have passed. Recommend 11 stocks

Financial data analysis: Chemical Industry From January to June 2012, the revenue of the chemical industry increased by 7.86% year-on-year, the operating profit decreased by 46.12% year-on-year, and the gross profit margin was 14.16%. Compared with the first quarter, the growth rates of revenue and profit have declined, and the gross profit margin has increased slightly. Compared with the 23 primary industries of Shenwan, the growth rate of operating profit in the interim report of the chemical industry ranks 20th, only better than non-ferrous metals, information equipment, ferrous metals and other cyclical industries that are greatly affected by the macro economy. In other indicators, the three major expense rates have all increased; the current ratio has decreased year-on-year and month-on-month, and the asset-liability ratio has increased year-on-year and decreased slightly month-on-month.

Sub-industry prosperity screening: focus on sub-industries that meet the following conditions: the interim report operating profit has increased year-on-year, and the growth rate has expanded compared with the first quarter, and the interim report profit growth rate is faster than the revenue growth rate. Overall, the prosperity of sub-industries such as tires, pesticides, other rubber products, and daily chemical products is relatively certain, and the recovery of downstream demand in other sub-industries still needs to wait.

Fund holdings: Judging from the allocation of stock funds in the chemical industry in the interim report data, funds are still under-allocated in the second quarter. In the second quarter, the market value of fund holdings in the petroleum, chemical, plastic and plastic industries totaled 44.12 billion yuan, accounting for 3.04% of the market value of stock investment funds, which was 0.75 percentage points lower than the industry standard allocation ratio, and the under-allocation margin was further expanded. The mid-year performance of the chemical industry faces greater risks. The allocation of funds is in line with our expectations. We expect that as the chemical sub-industry improves month-on-month, the fund holding ratio will increase to a certain extent in the third quarter. From the changes in the positions of chemical stocks heavily held by funds, excluding the factors of new stock listings, institutional investors prefer pesticide intermediates, civil explosives and environmental protection stocks.

Predicted increase in the third quarter of the chemical industry: As of September 3, a total of 116 chemical companies have issued third-quarter performance warnings. From the upper limit of the profit change forecast, 53 companies are expected to achieve year-on-year positive growth in the third quarter report; from the lower limit, 32 companies are expected to achieve year-on-year positive growth. We have selected listed companies that conservatively estimate that the companies will have positive growth in the third quarter, namely Taishan Petroleum, Huaxing Chemical, *ST Titanium Dioxide, Baoli Asphalt, ST Jincai, Jiujiujiu, Yueyang Xingchang, Aoyang Technology, Pulite, Yahua Group, and Xilong Chemical. (Aerospace Securities)

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