International oil prices have begun to adjust sharply since hitting a near four-year high earlier this month, as the current rally driven by U.S. sanctions on Iranian crude exports and Opec's refusal to increase production began to show signs of fatigue. Although there are more and more analysts believe that oil prices can not continue to rise, but the market has not formed a consensus on the direction of oil prices next year.

The price of Brent crude oil futures in London settled at $86.29 a barrel on Oct. 3, after briefly reaching its highest level since late October 2014. However, the international oil price immediately ushered in a large adjustment, Brent crude oil futures prices following a decline of about 2% on the 4th, and a continuous sharp decline from the 10th to the 11th, the cumulative decline of more than 5.5% in the two trading days.

At present, there are large differences in the market's judgment on the trend of oil prices in the near future and next year, but in general, most analysts expect that oil prices will not remain above $90 per barrel for a long time.

JBC Energy consulting company recently released a report pointed out that the United States is about to restart sanctions against Iran oil trading and other fields is one of the most important supporting factors for crude oil prices in the short and medium term, but the effect of this factor may have been fully released, its support for oil prices will begin to weaken.

Columbia University Center for Global Energy Policy Research senior researcher Richard Nefeyou told reporters that if Iran's crude oil exports are significantly reduced, the international oil price may climb to $120 to $130 per barrel; If Iran's crude oil exports fall to zero, oil prices may reach $140 a barrel, but this is not sustainable.

Jim Ritterbusch, president of an energy consulting firm in Chicago, said the rapid decline in Iranian crude supplies due to U.S. sanctions could be a powerful price stimulus, although the boost to oil prices could quickly fade once the sanctions are fully implemented next month.

PVM Oil brokerage analyst Robin Biber believes that the uptrend in oil prices is over for now, a new direction is taking shape, the market looks to be on the downside, and the effective target price is moving lower.

The US Energy Information Administration recently released a report forecasting that the spot price of Brent crude oil will average $74 per barrel in 2018 and $75 per barrel in 2019.

Alex Beard, chief executive of Glencore's oil and gas business, expects the average international oil price to be in the range of $85 to $90 a barrel over the next year. Mr Beard believes that if oil prices rise to $90 - $100 a barrel, there will be significant downward pressure on demand for oil from emerging market economies.

Gunvor Oil Trading CEO Thorbjorn Turnqvist expects crude to be between $70 and $75 a barrel in a year's time. He said the previous $40 a barrel crude price had generated new demand for oil, but this should not be seen as the new normal.

Jeremy Weil, chief executive of international oil trading company Trafigura, said he would not be surprised if oil prices topped $100 a barrel by the end of this year or early next year, but that it would not be sustainable. He expects prices to average between $80 and $85 a barrel for the whole of next year. Global oil supply and demand are near record highs, reaching about 100m barrels a day in both cases by the third quarter of this year, according to a report released by the International Energy Agency. Looking ahead, growth in Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela is expected to add to the market, while the petrochemical sector, especially the plastics industry, will provide strong support for demand, so global oil supply and demand will continue to grow.

However, the report also pointed out that high oil prices will pose a threat to world economic growth. The report cut world oil demand growth by more than 100,000 barrels a day in both 2018 and 2019, as many emerging economies face serious challenges from higher international energy prices and depreciating currencies.

Consulting firm JBC Energy expects global crude oil demand growth of about 1.1 million barrels per day in 2018, down from its previous estimate of 1.4 million barrels per day. (Reporter Liu Yannan)

Xinhua News Agency New York, Oct 16

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