According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, affected by the recent epidemic and flood situation in China, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index in August was 50.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to remain in the expansion range; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 47.5%, 5.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, falling below the critical point, of which the construction industry was 60.5%, 3.0 percentage points higher than the previous month, in the high prosperity range, and the service industry was 45.2%, significantly lower than the previous month by 7.3 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 48.9%, 3.5 percentage points lower than the previous month.

1. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index remained in the expansion range

In August, the expansion of the manufacturing industry weakened and the prosperity narrowed. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 10 industries had PMIs in the prosperity range, 3 fewer than the previous month. The main features of this month:

First, production activities were generally stable. The production index was 50.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with small fluctuations in the index, and manufacturing production maintained a steady expansion. From the perspective of the industry, the production indexes of agricultural and sideline food processing, paper printing, cultural, educational, sports, and entertainment products, railway, ship, and aerospace equipment are all in the high prosperity range above 55.0%, and production growth has accelerated; the production indexes of petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, and automobile industries are below the critical point, and production has decreased month-on-month.

Second, market demand has weakened. The new order index was 49.6%, 1.3 percentage points lower than last month, falling below the critical point. This month, the new order index of high-energy-consuming industries fell sharply, which had a significant negative impact on the overall manufacturing industry. Among them, the new order index of industries such as petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, chemical fibers, and rubber and plastic products has been below the critical point for three consecutive months, reflecting the continued decline in market demand. In addition, some surveyed companies reported that due to factors such as the epidemic and flood situation, the supply of raw materials and product delivery were not smooth, the production cycle was extended, and new orders were therefore reduced. At the same time, the market demand of some industries this month has been stable and rising. The new order indexes of food, wine, beverage, refined tea, medicine, special equipment, etc. are all in the expansion range, and are higher than the levels of last month and the same period last year.

Third, both price indices declined. The main raw material purchase price index and ex-factory price index were 61.3% and 53.4% respectively, 1.6 and 0.4 percentage points lower than last month, and the difference between the two price indices narrowed for three consecutive months, from 12.2 percentage points in May to 7.9 percentage points. From the main raw material purchase price index, the 21 industries surveyed were all above the critical point, among which the index of industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing fell significantly, but the textile, chemical raw materials and chemical products, non-metallic mineral products and other industries were still above 65.0%, and the procurement cost pressure of related enterprises was still relatively large. From the ex-factory price index, the decline in industries such as petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, chemical fibers and rubber and plastic products was 12.0 percentage points or more, falling below the critical point for the first time since May.

Fourth, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises was in the expansion range. The PMIs of large and medium-sized enterprises were 50.3% and 51.2% respectively, one down and one up compared with the previous month, and both were above the critical point for 6 consecutive months, indicating that the operation of large and medium-sized enterprises was relatively stable. The PMI of small enterprises was 48.2%, which was below the critical point for 4 consecutive months, indicating that the prosperity level of small enterprises continued to be low and the production and operation pressure was relatively high.

Fifth, enterprises have stable confidence in market development. The production and operation activity expectation index was 57.5%, which continued to be in a relatively high prosperity range. Among the 21 industries surveyed, except for the textile industry and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, all other industries were above the critical point. In the survey, some enterprises reflected that as the impact of the epidemic and floods gradually subsided, production and operation would soon return to normal, and enterprises remained optimistic about future development expectations.

Second, the non-manufacturing business activity index fell significantly

In August, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 47.5%, 5.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, the first time it fell below the critical point since March 2020.

The construction industry rose to a high level of prosperity. This month, the production activities of the construction industry accelerated, and the business activity index was 60.5%, 3.0 percentage points higher than the previous month, returning to a high level of prosperity. Among them, the business activity index of the civil engineering construction industry was 60.8%, a sharp increase of 6.4 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of market demand and employment, the new order index and the employee index are both in the expansion range, indicating that the number of newly signed contracts and the employment of enterprises in the construction industry have increased.

The prosperity level of the service industry has fallen sharply. The epidemic in multiple provinces and multiple points has brought a great impact on the service industry, which is still in the process of recovery. The business activity index of the service industry was 45.2%, 7.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, and it fell below the critical point for the first time this year. From the perspective of industry, the epidemic has suppressed the release of demand for contact-based and clustered service industries. The business activity indexes of road transport, air transport, accommodation, catering, leasing and business services, ecological protection and environmental governance, culture, sports and entertainment industries have all fallen below the critical point, and the total business volume has decreased significantly; at the same time, the wholesale, postal, telecommunications, radio and television and satellite transmission services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and other industries are all above 54.0%, and the total business volume continues to grow. From the perspective of market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 57.3%, which is in a relatively high prosperity range, indicating that as this round of epidemic is effectively controlled and the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays are approaching, companies are more optimistic about the recent recovery of the service industry market.

3. The comprehensivePMIoutput index falls below the critical point

In August, the comprehensive PMI output index was 48.9%, 3.5 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese companies have slowed down significantly compared with the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that constitute the comprehensive PMI output index are 50.9% and 47.5% respectively.

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