Securities Times reporter learned from relevant channels on June 8 that the retail price of refined oil products will be lowered from the early morning of June 9. According to most institutions forecast, due to the large decline of crude oil in the three places, the reduction may be the largest in recent years, a decline of about 600 yuan per ton. The Securities Times network took stock of the impact of the oil price reduction on related industries.

The reduction of oil prices not only includes the transportation industry (including aviation and logistics), automobile manufacturing, chemical fiber and plastic industries that are directly affected by oil prices, but also thermal power, agriculture, fisheries and other industries, which will also benefit from the sharp fall in oil prices.

Transportation: prosperity is negatively correlated with oil prices

The prosperity of the transportation industry is significantly negatively correlated with oil prices. Due to the repeated rise of international oil prices in the early stage, the stock price of the vast majority of stocks in the industry (such as aviation, shipping, road transport, logistics, etc.) has constituted a serious pressure, especially in the aviation industry, where fuel costs have accounted for about 30% of airline costs. Now the oil price has fallen sharply, the cost of transportation industry will have a significant decline in space, repressed for a long time, the super decline has been too large transportation stocks, naturally will usher in a good time for short-term surge.

Automobile: The willingness to consume is expected to increase

For the automobile industry, mainly because the supply and demand of automobiles are closely related to the willingness to consume. In China's highly competitive auto market, high oil prices will be a significant drag on demand. In the course of the previous high oil price, consumers' willingness to buy cars significantly decreased. China's passenger car sales in May were weak, well below market expectations. The decline was mainly due to higher fuel prices driven by high oil prices. The biggest impact on passenger car consumption is the consumption demand for economy cars. The main reason is that the consumer group of this market segment belongs to the new demand for the first time to buy a car, and this group of people is relatively sensitive to the rise of fuel prices. Now the oil price has dropped sharply, the third quarter of China's finished oil prices are bound to be lower expectations, which is beneficial to the auto industry.

Chemical fiber plastic fertilizer: the cost will decline

China's chemical fertilizer production raw materials are mainly coal, heavy oil, natural gas, the cost of raw materials, energy costs accounted for a large proportion of the cost; Chemical fiber to synthetic fiber monomer (polymer) as raw materials, raw material prices are very sensitive to the price of crude oil; Plastic products industry to basic petrochemical products, such as polyethylene, polypropylene and so on as raw materials, and raw material costs accounted for a large proportion of production costs, the impact of changes in crude oil prices is also greater. Therefore, on the whole, the high cost of chemical fertilizer fiber and plastics industry will also benefit significantly from the collapse of oil prices.

Other industries: indirect benefit from the decline in oil prices

The decline in oil prices will also contribute to the reduction of costs in other industries such as thermal power, agriculture and fisheries.

For the thermal power industry, due to the substitution effect of coal for crude oil, the decline in oil prices often leads to a decline in coal prices, which makes the power generation cost of power generation enterprises decline, coupled with this year due to the power shortage and the corresponding increase in electricity prices, the weak power stocks have a rare opportunity to explore.

For other industries such as agriculture and fisheries, because they are in the middle and lower reaches of the oil industry chain, the big drop in oil prices is also conducive to the decline of the overall industry cost.

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