Jeremy Rifkin

On the 10th, Jeremy Rifkin, author of "The Third Industrial Revolution", chairman of the American Trend Foundation, and famous trend scientist, said at the "Third Industrial Revolution Summit Forum" held by Xinhua News Agency's "Economic Reference News" that China has abundant renewable energy resources, persistent patience and long-term planning vision. At the same time, China has rich cultural treasures, cultural wealth, and a humanistic spirit of harmony. On this basis, China may complete the transformation of the third industrial revolution within 25 years.

Fossil energy can no longer support our further development

In the past, our way was to burn resources to provide energy. It is worth noting that in this process we are actually losing energy to create various products, which means that our production method is to do subtraction by constantly consuming raw materials to ignite energy.

Rifkin believes that the development of fossil energy is the key to the development of the second industrial revolution, but at this stage, oil, coal, and natural gas are sunset industries. Their high costs and excessive consumption continue to exhaust their potential. "Fossil energy cannot support our sustainable development and economic prosperity, especially in the 21st century." Rifkin pointed out that on the one hand, we have already felt the harm of excessive carbon dioxide emissions during the first and second revolutions, which led to climate warming. On the other hand, in 2008, we found that the global oil price had reached $147 per barrel, and we can realize that this old era is coming to an end. "We can see that many such phenomena have appeared in the world. The old fuel market is constantly closing, and the industrial civilization based on crude oil, including oil and chemical materials, is slowing down. All industrial civilizations based on carbon-based energy are dying out. Therefore, getting rid of the shackles of carbon-based energy is our most urgent task at present." "And wind energy, geothermal energy, and waste recycling and post-processing power generation, if the initial infrastructure is completed, the marginal cost will be lower and lower, and the price will be cheaper and cheaper." Rifkin said that new energy can reduce energy costs on a large scale, can break away from dependence on carbon-based energy, and can greatly reduce pollution throughout China, because we can get rid of dependence on carbon-based energy.

Therefore, Rifkin believes that China can significantly reduce pollution in the next 20 to 35 years by using new energy, and at the same time, it can also create trillions of wealth.

But it is worth noting that energy utilization cannot transition to the third industrial revolution overnight, but needs to continuously make the power supply achievements brought by the second industrial revolution more and more efficient, and slowly transform to the third industrial revolution. Rifkin pointed out that the first industrial revolution in the 19th century took 40 years to complete, until the emergence of automobiles and oil pipelines in the second industrial revolution, and the fourth stage of the first industrial revolution and the first stage of the second industrial revolution developed in parallel. So we must have a long-term plan and walk on two legs for a long time, especially in the early 21st century. We need to continuously strengthen supervision and pay attention to effectively guide our transformation to the third industrial revolution.

The integration of new energy and the Internet brings a new revolution

"In fact, throughout the history of economic revolutions, major industrial and energy revolutions have been accompanied." Rifkin said that there are several phenomena in the world's economic revolutions. At the same time as the communication revolution, there is also an energy revolution. That is to say, in history, when the communication revolution appears and merges, it will change all our economic paradigms and all social forms when it is integrated into the energy revolution. "For the third industrial revolution, the new energy structure will make us more complex, but such a complexity, especially the complexity of new energy, will bring us a new revolution."

Supporting this new revolution are the development of five aspects: communication, new energy, storage of new energy, intelligent interconnection, and logistics and transportation.

In the past 25 years, the Internet has made great progress. We have gradually developed from the era of centralized communication such as telephones and newspapers to distributed information. Therefore, the Internet revolution is decentralized and point-to-point, forming a decentralized concentration.

It is worth noting that if the Internet revolution model is combined with the energy revolution, distributed energy supply will be formed, and the concentration of distributed decentralized energy on the large power grid will form the first pillar of the third industrial revolution-the communication revolution.

For example, in the 1970s, we mostly had large, mechanical centralized power supply networks, and now what we need is the emergence of green distributed energy supply networks. "Distributed means that each building can build a small power generation equipment, and such a building can become a part of a small power grid." Rifkin said.

Rifkin pointed out that distributed energy supply means that everyone can get the energy they need when they return to their homes and communities every day. Solar energy, wind energy, hydropower or geothermal energy can provide us with what we need. "The amount of sunlight energy generated every 45 minutes can provide the world with one year's worth of energy. If we can collect the truly sustainable energy we enjoy every day, we can provide seven times the supply we need."

"Although it is too expensive for us to build or transform new energy buildings at this stage, the cost of new energy will one day be like electronic products, with lower and lower costs and cheaper prices." Rifkin said, for example, the development of computers, the initial supercomputers cost millions of dollars or more, and the invention of microchips created PCs that are spread across every household. In this way, we can foresee that new energy sources such as solar energy and wind energy will grow by several levels in the next few years. "Just like the supercomputers worth millions of dollars turned into very simple laptops worth a few thousand yuan, in the next 20 years, new energy sources such as wind energy and solar energy will also face a process of significant cost reduction and miniaturization."

Rifkin pointed out that how to collect energy scattered everywhere is the difficulty in the development of new energy at this stage. "The sun is always shining, and the wind is blowing day and night, so the amount of energy will be unbalanced. For every 10 kilowatts of electricity generated, 3 or 4 kilowatts will be lost. In many countries, the green energy generated will be lost in vain. This phenomenon has also been seen in China in the past few decades."

In addition, after establishing distributed energy, we need to combine these individual energy sources through the Internet. "Now there are thousands of scattered buildings in the whole country, each of which is a small power grid and a small power source. Then we can add a very smart functional meter connected and controlled by the Internet to this building to connect and control each building separately. In this way, each small smart building can generate electricity and then share it with the power grid through the smart meter. Therefore, China will soon become the world's leader in smart power supply and power grid, and will soon be in the forefront of wind energy and electricity." Rifkin said.

Therefore, we need to connect everything together, "just like in the past, after the emergence of cars in the second industrial revolution, the highway system, telephone and radio systems were established. The third industrial revolution also requires the combination of various systems and parts to establish multiple power transmission networks to help us collect this distributed energy and transmit it to the backbone network." Rifkin said.

"In the future, large power companies will no longer be companies that produce electricity, but will play the role of storage and transmission management." Rifkin pointed out that power companies are not only the leaders of the second industrial revolution, but will also become the leaders of the third industrial revolution.

3D printing cannot be regarded as a traditional manufacturing link

The third revolution is also an intelligent revolution. Due to the interconnection of objects and the Internet, we can obtain a very large number of databases. "This big data will bring us some data infrastructure, how all warehouses change, how all supply chains change, how supply changes, how shopping changes, all big data feedback will allow us to obtain more analytical results, bring us more mathematical formulas and management, can improve our efficiency and thus improve the benefit chain."

Rifkin said that the five pillars will bring us big data and analytical results, and these things will benefit every company, every community, and every person in China. Therefore, improving energy efficiency will enhance our value chain and continue to reduce our waste.

He pointed out that 3D printing will change our lives. Rifkin said that 3D printing is the latest business model and a new high-tech infrastructure. Although many countries have not yet had a correct understanding of it, and even want to incorporate 3D printing into the second industrial revolution, establish a better manufacturing link through 3D printing, and turn it into a production method through centralized large-scale 3D printing, this is incorrect and a great waste of productivity. "Fortunately, China regards 3D printing as an important part of the third industrial revolution. If you have a 3D printer, you can find many open source 3D printing files online anywhere in China. Our printer can use a large amount of raw materials, including metals and plastics. We can use a lot of real materials, many of which may be very cheap. In this way, we can print a lot of things." "Especially in western China, the productivity in western China is relatively low and relatively poor, but we can send the printing program designed in the east to the west, and directly print the product with the printer in the west. We can print one layer or two layers, so that a finished product can be printed and assembled layer by layer in the west. Such cases will change our society. Even some of the oldest business schools in the world are hoping to continuously introduce such new business cases." Rifkin said. Rifkin pointed out that in the past, a large amount of raw materials were obtained from nature to produce the current products, but in the new 3D printing era, there is no need to do such things. "With 3D printers, plus open intellectual resources, it means that a product can be printed at a very low cost, with marginal costs close to zero. 3D printers will use a variety of recycled plastics, metals and even paper to print 3D products, and these materials are very cheap. If it is added to the five pillars, it will be plug-and-play, and only one-tenth of the materials used in traditional manufacturing can be used to produce products, and they can be improved layer by layer." Rifkin believes that 3D printing should be regarded as a new manufacturing model. For the Internet, it costs money to build a network at the beginning, but it costs almost nothing to send information on the network. This is the concept of marginal costs close to zero. Thousands of people around the world are creating their own entertainment activities, information, video and audio files, etc., and they publish them to the Internet for everyone to watch, and this costs almost nothing, just buy a computer, mobile phone or other electronic device. Rifkin said that people can quickly market your design results to the whole world through 3D printing, and all the results are driven by your own green energy, such as your green car, you can drive your green energy car to promote your products, so it is really very cheap. In addition, products can be made from recycled materials. Fans can be melted down and made into other products, so the materials used for printing are almost free. Although you need to pay for the technology, 3D printers and materials will become cheaper and cheaper. At present, the technology is still not cheap, but it will become cheaper and cheaper. The same is true for renewable energy. For example, it costs money to install a solar panel on the roof, but once it is installed, each unit of additional energy itself is almost free. You don't need to pay the sun, you only need to pay for the technology. But the technology will become cheaper and cheaper, and the marginal cost of renewable energy and 3D printing materials will be close to zero. This will happen in the next 20 years.

China has the opportunity to lead the third industrial revolution

Rifkin's firm expectation is that the third industrial revolution will eliminate all pollution caused by carbon-based fuels. He analyzed that with this new model, people will not see much pollution in 25 to 30 years, and climate change will be solved. There may still be water pollution or other problems, but there will be no pollution caused by fossil fuels.

Rifkin said that Germany is now moving out of the stage of relying on fossil fuels and nuclear energy and will enter the post-carbon era in 30 years. Why can't China? The question facing the Chinese government now is whether China can achieve the same success as Germany, and Rifkin believes that this can be achieved. In addition, Rifkin's organization is developing a 100,000-word master plan for France's old industrial areas. This 30-year plan will be announced in October, with an annual investment of 5 billion euros for 25 years. This is just one area in France. So all of Europe is moving forward, and Germany is the leader.

But in the United States, except for California on the west coast, most of the energy model is still in the 20th century, and the same is true in Canada. Rifkin believes that if these countries do not act quickly, they will fall into the second tier in 25 years and will not be the trend-setting countries.

Therefore, Rifkin believes that Britain led the first industrial revolution, promoted the use of coal and created the empire on which the sun never sets. The United States led the second industrial revolution, promoted the use of oil and cars. China will have the opportunity to lead the third industrial revolution through the Internet and renewable energy, which will greatly improve productivity and promote the pace of entering the post-carbon era.

Rifkin said that China is the Saudi Arabia of new energy, and China's huge potential for new energy exceeds that of all major countries in the world. China's solar radiation is envied by countries around the world. China's wind turbines are distributed along the coast more than any other country in the world. China has huge geothermal energy reserves waiting to be discovered underground, huge biomass energy is distributed throughout the country, and ocean tides are constantly hitting the coast to bring energy supply. "I see the assets that China has in new energy, and China has huge potential in this regard."

Currently, the Chinese government and China's scientific research, academic and commercial fields are discussing the topic of the third industrial revolution on a large scale. While some countries can produce energy at close to zero marginal cost, China is still in the era of coal, natural gas and nuclear energy, which are not only increasingly expensive, but also pollute the environment.

"My country started the second industrial revolution in the 1890s, when the second industrial revolution and the first industrial revolution existed at the same time, and this situation lasted until the 1940s and 1950s. Those companies that completed the transformation in 40 years survived, while others went bankrupt. So for China, it should be carefully considered to complete the transformation to the new stage in the next 30 years while having some old technologies and old energy." Rifkin said.

He pointed out that the third industrial revolution is a bit like wifi, which is finally connected through the network. "In this process, China's central government will play an increasingly important role. It will bring us supervision, standards and various guidelines, and provide various incentives and roadmaps to promote development in this area. And local development needs to be continuously localized and personalized."

"In addition, patience is China's second important asset." Rifkin said that the Chinese have always been very patient and know how to look at problems in a sustainable and long-term perspective. Because developing technology really requires long-term planning and patience, because you can't expect infrastructure investment to give you a return immediately.

Creating a world in harmony between man and nature

Speaking of his suggestions for China, Rifkin said, "I think China should first have a master plan. This plan should include both the central government and local governments. The central government should formulate a master plan for promoting the third industrial revolution in the next 25 to 40 years, and the experience of the European Union is the same. The central government should formulate a master plan for the transformation, set goals and formulate rules. Then, local governments should be given the power to formulate local plans based on the central plan. ¡±

Rifkin said that if this process is not started immediately in the next few years, but the old energy and old technology of the 20th century are continued to be used, and a large amount of investment is made to build the infrastructure of the second industrial revolution, then the transition to the new technology of the 21st century will become more difficult after 2, 5, and 10 years, so it is necessary to start this process head-on.

Rifkin said that China needs 25 years to continuously transform old buildings and transform them into buildings suitable for new energy power generation. China now has a very good advantage in that China has accumulated a lot of funds and technology in the east, and the experience and technology of the east can be quickly passed on to the west to help them develop. In addition, not only the refinement of economic development technology, sometimes it is also necessary to have another development plan, that is, Plan B, which means that on the basis of the five major development pillars, we need to break the shackles of geopolitics and mobilize the material resources of the whole world.

¡°The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that the future economic development of the whole of China must be based on the principle of scientific and technological development, and all economic development must achieve harmony between man and nature, and harmony between society and the environment. "This is very exciting, and I hope that our country's constitution can also adopt such an amendment to incorporate environmentally harmonious development into our constitution," Rifkin pointed out. Rifkin is convinced that China now has a lot of renewable resources, China has persistent patience and long-term planning vision, China has rich cultural treasures, cultural wealth, and a humanistic spirit of valuing harmony. These three major treasures together will bring us endless treasures. He believes that it is impossible for China to break away from the Second Industrial Revolution overnight, but the government and enterprises' understanding of the new industrial revolution may enable China to complete the transformation to the Third Industrial Revolution within 25 years.

"I hope that a great country like China will not only become a great economic power in the 21st century, but also become a leading force in all aspects, leading the entire human race into such a leading country that is friendly to the environment, ecologically harmonious, and focuses on sustainable development, so that the whole world can live in a more harmonious state. If China can continue to promote the Third Industrial Revolution here and show the world the possibility of the Third Industrial Revolution, we will lead the world on a new journey. I think we will have enough time to solve the climate problem, which will bring us a sustainable future and a more prosperous and sustainable society." Rifkin said.

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