Hot heat, Limited power production

"air conditioning temperature in summer is not less than 26¡æ", "industrial enterprises, especially high energy consumption enterprises take the initiative to avoid peak electricity", "reduce the use of elevators below three floors"......

Recently, the high temperature continues to heat, Anhui, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan and other places of power shortage, many started orderly power consumption, requiring industrial enterprises to peak production, ensure the people's livelihood of electricity, and issued a proposal to save electricity.

On August 15, Sichuan Provincial Department of Economy and Information Technology and State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company jointly issued the document "On expanding the scope of industrial enterprises to let the people implement the urgent Notice" : due to the current tense situation of power supply and demand further intensified, in order to ensure the safety of Sichuan power grid, ensure the people's livelihood of electricity, to ensure that there is no power rationing. After the research decision, from August 15 to cancel the active wrong peak demand response, in the province (except Panzhihua, Liangshan) 19 cities (states) to expand the scope of industrial enterprises to electricity in the implementation of the Sichuan power grid orderly electricity plan for all industrial power users (including white list key protection enterprises) implementation of production stop (except for security load), put a high temperature holiday, so that electricity to the people, Time from 00:00 on August 15, 2022 to 24:00 on 20. All localities should immediately notify enterprises to make production adjustments, ensure the use of electricity for security loads, and promptly implement them.

August 15, Lutianhua announcement, due to the implementation of Sichuan Provincial Economic and Information Technology Department, State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company "on expanding the scope of industrial enterprises to let electricity in the implementation of the emergency Notice", the company Luzhou Naxi District production plant in August 15 all parking completed, parking period from 00:00 on August 15 to 24:00 on 20. The power suspension is expected to lead to a reduction in urea production of about 35,000 tons, methanol production of about 10,000 tons, is expected to affect the net profit attributable to the listed company reduced by about 0.3 million yuan.

Downstream demand improved

Since June, with the increase of high temperature weather, the sales of home appliances air conditioners in the country grew rapidly. In the 26th, 27th and 28th weeks after the 618 Shopping Festival, China's online retail sales of air conditioners increased by 81.6 percent, 80.2 percent and 14.9 percent year-on-year, respectively, according to data released by a market research institute. In terms of offline key areas, Shanghai, Sichuan, Chongqing, Anhui and other places also achieved triple-digit growth.

Some market analysts pointed out that there are obvious off-peak seasons of air conditioning sales, but the growth and decline in previous years are usually relatively stable, and the sales volume in 2022 is "violent pull up".

The hot scene of the air conditioning market is the same as the automobile market, especially the new energy vehicles. China's retail sales of new-energy passenger vehicles reached 486,000 units in July, up 117.3 per cent year on year, accounting for 26.7 per cent of the new car market, according to data released by the Passenger Car Market Information Association (CPCA) last Tuesday. The retail sales of new-energy passenger vehicles in China in the January-July period reached 2.733 million units, up 121.5 percent year-on-year.

The retail sales of passenger vehicles in July reached 1.818 million units, an increase of 20.4 percent year-on-year, the second-highest growth rate in the past 10 years. On this basis, the Passenger Car Market Information Association raised its forecast for new energy passenger car sales this year to a record 6 million units, up from the previous 5.5 million.

Upstream raw materials began to rebound

The improvement of the downstream market also played a certain supporting role in upstream raw material prices. Entering August, although the chemical market is still in a flagging atmosphere, there are signs of a small rebound in some chemicals.

Among them, the price of dimethyl carbonate and R134a tons rose more than 1,000 yuan from the previous month, and the price of polysilicon tons rose more than 51666.66 yuan/ton from the previous month, an increase of more than 27%. At the same time, China's well-known chemical enterprises such as Changchun Chemical, Lihua Yiweiyuan and other product prices have an upward trend.

? Changchun Chemical bisphenol A foreign quotation increased by 200 yuan/ton to 12400 yuan/ton, the products are mainly supplied to downstream epoxy resin and long-term customers, and a small number of export spot market.

? Lihua Yiwei Yuan bisphenol A price increase of 200 yuan/ton, the implementation of 12200 yuan/ton, the products are mainly supporting the supply of 130,000 tons/year downstream PC devices and contract customers, spot sales are small. PC market in the past two weeks, the factory together to support the price, South China, some manufacturers of products increased 300-400 yuan/ton, of which Chi Mei 110 model product price increased 410 yuan/ton, Lotte 1100 model product price increased 310 yuan/ton.

Price increase letter strong attack

International, due to energy tension, Dow, DongCao and other chemical companies have issued letters to announce the rise, products including rubber, resin, polyolefin elastomers, etc., ton prices rose up to nearly 3700 yuan, and some companies have been involved in the price increase arrangements in September and even October category, it can be said to be a rainy day.

? From September 1, the well-known Japanese plastic enterprises electrochemical company will increase the price of neoprene rubber "Denka chloroprene". The specific increase will be 65 yen/kg (3,237 yuan/ton) or more in the Chinese market; The export market rose by more than 500 US dollars/ton (3373 yuan/ton), and the export of 450 euros/ton (3101 yuan/ton).

? Toncho Co., Ltd. announced that from August 22, the price of paste PVC resin will be increased by 40 yen /kg (about 1,984 yuan/ton); Copolymer increased by more than 50 yen /kg (about 2480 yuan/ton); From August 1, the price of all series of MDI products of the company will be raised by more than 50 yen /kg (about 2,440 yuan/ton).

? Dow announced that from August 15, the price of the company's elastomer products will be raised, polyolefin elastomer "ENGAGE", olefin block copolymer "INFUSE" and plastic body "VERSIFY" will be increased by more than 50 yen /kg (about 2,480 yuan/ton).

? On August 9, Asahi Kasei announced that it will raise the price of styrene thermoplastic elastomers from August 15. The specific increases are as follows:

Styrene thermoplastic elastomer up 100 yen /kg

hydrogenated styrene thermoplastic elastomer up 100 yen /kg (about 5058 yuan/ton)

? In addition, earlier Japan DIC Co., Ltd. announced that since August 5, it will increase the price of epoxy plasticizer, Specific increase for epoxy linseed oil up 75 yen /kg(about 3735 yuan/ton) or more; Other epoxy plasticizers rose 34 yen /kg(about 1693 yuan/ton) or more.

"Gold nine" prelude started in advance

It is worth mentioning that at present, half of August, September is coming, the superposition of the above information does make people have "gold nine" is preparing for the "good feeling". Of course, on the one hand, part of the downstream market is good, and it is true that the demand side of the upstream chemical raw materials market has improved to a certain extent, which may really be able to blow the assembly signal in advance of the arrival of gold nine silver ten.