The Yangtze River Delta region, especially the "Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Free Shipping Zone", has a good economic foundation and a large market space, and the scale of express delivery business is also very considerable, accounting for a large proportion of China's total. In addition to local consumption, a large number of express deliveries are sent from here to China every day, making it a typical commodity distribution center in China. In 2018, the total express delivery volume in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai reached 22.136 billion pieces, accounting for about 30% of China's total volume.

How much express packaging materials are consumed in the "Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Free Shipping Zone" in a year? The author uses dynamic "material flow analysis" as a research method to construct a recycling packaging resource conservation potential evaluation system. By estimating the "source, flow and quantity" of express packaging materials, the overall consumption of plastic recycling packaging resources in the region is calculated. The results show that the total consumption of plastic packaging in the "Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Free Shipping Area" in 2018 reached 267,400 tons, of which disposable plastic bags consumed the most, reaching 233,900 tons, followed by disposable woven bags at 23,900 tons, pearlescent bags at 4,836.23 tons, and foam boxes at 4,818.62 tons. According to regional analysis, Jinhua City, where Yiwu is located, has the highest consumption, at 71,500 tons; Shanghai City ranks second at 37,900 tons; Hangzhou City ranks third at 32,100 tons. Suzhou City and Wenzhou City rank fourth and fifth, respectively, with consumption of 20,900 tons and 13,100 tons.

How much is the potential for saving by using green packaging?

We assume that: at the consumer end, disposable woven bags are replaced with recycled woven bags, disposable plastic bags and pearlescent bags are replaced with recycled plastic bags, and foam plastic boxes are replaced with cold chain recycling boxes. Assume that the cold chain recycling box is recycled 120 times/piece on average, and the recycled plastic bag/woven bag is recycled 40 times/piece on average. There are four scenarios for substitution: 25% of express delivery uses recycled packaging; 50% uses recycled packaging; 75% uses recycled packaging; and all uses recycled packaging.

The saving potential of the ¡°same-city model¡±

Observing the scale of the same-city express delivery business in the ¡°Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Free Shipping Zone¡± in 2018, Zhejiang Province has the largest business volume, which is 1.713 billion pieces, followed by Shanghai, which is 969 million pieces, and Jiangsu Province has the least, which is 669 million pieces. In the scenario where no packaging materials are changed, the same-city express delivery business in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai region will consume 49,200 tons of packaging materials, including 38,600 tons of disposable plastic bags, 3,900 tons of disposable woven bags, 0.59 tons of pearlescent bags, and 0.07 tons of foam boxes. In the scenario where the substitution rate is 25%, a total of 11,700 tons of traditional plastic bags, traditional woven bags, traditional pearlescent bags and disposable foam boxes can be saved throughout the year. At a substitution rate of 50%, the above four types of packaging materials save 23,500 tons. When the substitution rate is 75%, the savings are 35,200 tons. If the substitution rate reaches 100%, the total savings can reach 46,900 tons, which is the maximum value of the same-city packaging resource saving potential in the "Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Free Shipping Zone", which is 9,000 tons higher than the consumption of disposable express packaging plastics in Shanghai in 2018 (37,900 tons).

Saving potential of the "same-province model"

Under the scenario of not changing any packaging materials, the same-province (including the same city) express delivery business in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai region will consume 62,100 tons of packaging materials; under the condition of a substitution rate of 25%, a total of 14,800 tons of traditional plastic bags, traditional woven bags, traditional pearlescent bags and disposable foam boxes can be saved throughout the year. At a substitution rate of 50%, the above four types of packaging materials save 29,600 tons. At a substitution rate of 75%, the savings are 43,700 tons. If the substitution rate reaches 100%, the above four types of packaging materials can save up to 59,300 tons. This figure is 6,300 tons higher than the total consumption of disposable express packaging plastics in Hangzhou and Suzhou in 2018 (53,000 tons). A comparison shows that the data volume gap between the same city and the same province is not obvious.

The saving potential of the "same region model"

The express packaging substitution scenario of the "Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai free shipping area" includes three levels of circulation between the same city, the same province and the entire region. Without changing any packaging materials, the internal express delivery business in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai regions will consume 108,400 tons of packaging materials. With a substitution rate of 25%, a total of 25,900 tons of traditional plastic bags, traditional woven bags, traditional pearlescent bags and disposable foam boxes can be saved throughout the year. At a substitution rate of 50%, the above four types of packaging materials save 51,700 tons. At a substitution rate of 75%, the savings are 76,900 tons. If the substitution rate reaches 100%, the savings of the above four types of packaging materials can reach up to 103,500 tons. This value is close to the total consumption of express plastic packaging waste in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou and Wenzhou in 2019 (104,000 tons). Through analysis, it can be seen that if the express packaging in the "Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Free Shipping Zone" can all use recycled woven bags instead of disposable woven bags, recycled plastic bags instead of disposable plastic bags and pearlescent bags, and cold chain recycling boxes instead of foam plastic boxes, it can replace 85,000 tons of traditional plastic bags, 8,700 tons of traditional woven bags, 13,100 tons of traditional pearlescent bags and 1,600 tons of disposable foam boxes, and the total plastic reduction is 103,500 tons, which is about 40% of the express plastic packaging consumption in the "Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai Free Shipping Zone" in 2018. This is enough to prove that the resource conservation potential of the comprehensive application of recycled express packaging is huge.

(Author: Du Huanzheng, member of the Expert Advisory Committee of the National Inter-ministerial Joint Conference on the Development of Circular Economy, researcher of the Shanghai Research Center for Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, and director of the Institute of Circular Economy of Tongji University; Song Guanghan and Fan Yanan are both doctoral students of the School of Marxism of Tongji University)

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