Today, at midnight, the oil price has been reduced for the tenth time this year. The price of gasoline and diesel has been reduced by 125 yuan per ton. The retail price of No. 90 gasoline and No. 0 diesel (China's average) has been reduced by 0.09 yuan and 0.11 yuan per liter respectively. After the price adjustment, the No. 92 gasoline in the Guangzhou market has been reduced by 0.1 yuan per liter, which can save 4 yuan per tank of oil and about 15 yuan per month in fuel costs. This is the tenth time the oil price has been reduced this year. From the beginning of the year to the implementation of this price adjustment, the oil price has dropped by 0.34 yuan per liter, which saves car owners a lot of money.

Coinciding with the adjustment period of A-shares, the oil and gas related sectors reacted negatively to the further decline in oil prices. The share prices of Sinopec and PetroChina fell together, and small and medium-sized oil and gas stocks fell sharply; however, after the continuous decline in China's oil prices, it has formed a continuous cost reduction momentum for logistics, aviation, automobiles, chemical fiber textiles and other sectors, which is conducive to the improvement of performance and stock prices. At the same time, it is conducive to the in-depth implementation of the "oil and gas market reform", and the future market of most oil and gas companies still has more benefits than disadvantages.

Product oil price forecast:

Next round may be slightly lowered

Industry insiders pointed out that in the context of the global oil oversupply not being alleviated, the high US crude oil inventory, the strengthening of the US dollar index and the Chinese economy have multiple influences during this price adjustment cycle. International oil prices continue to fluctuate downward, and rebounds cannot stop the downward trend of oil prices. During this round of pricing cycle, the average price of WTI futures fell by US$1.80/barrel or -3.83% compared with the previous cycle, and the average price of Brent futures fell by US$1.69/barrel or -3.37% compared with the previous cycle.

The next round of oil price adjustment will start at 24:00 on November 17. Many institutions predict that the current international crude oil oversupply continues to increase concerns about price declines, and the next round of refined oil prices may continue to be slightly lowered. After the completion of this price adjustment, this year's price adjustment will form a pattern of "seven increases, ten decreases and four stranded".

Accounting: Gasoline price has dropped by 0.34 yuan/liter this year

After offsetting the increase and decrease of gasoline, the price has dropped by 440 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a decrease of 0.34 yuan/liter for No. 92 gasoline, and the price of diesel has dropped by 495 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a decrease of 0.42 yuan/liter for No. 0 diesel.

Private cars: Save 54.4 yuan in fuel compared to the beginning of the year

For example, a car with a monthly running of 2,000 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, the price of No. 92 gasoline has dropped by 0.34 yuan/liter this year, and the fuel consumption cost of private cars will be reduced by 54.4 yuan compared to the beginning of the year.

Logistics and transport vehicles: Save 1,680 yuan in fuel costs compared to the beginning of the year

In terms of logistics and transportation, taking a 50-ton truck as an example, the fuel consumption for heavy-load driving is about 40L per 100 kilometers, and the monthly running is 10,000 kilometers. The monthly fuel consumption cost of this truck will be reduced by about 1,680 yuan compared to the beginning of the year.

Related industries: Raw material costs fall

A reporter from Guangzhou Daily interviewed a PP chemical company in Shunde, Guangdong. The person in charge, Mr. Luo, said: "In previous years, September to November were the traditional peak seasons for demand in the plastics and chemical industries, but this year's situation is greatly discounted. The plunge in international oil prices has caused a "domino" phenomenon. Upstream production companies have sold off severely, and midstream production and sales companies dare not easily stock up. The downstream demand was originally sluggish, and after the peak season operating rate increased, it encountered an unfavorable situation of oversupply, and even the entire industry chain has seen a situation of sluggish trading."

Due to the drop in plastic prices, the toy and household goods industries have been promoted to a certain extent. Guangzhou Daily reporter interviewed two toy manufacturing companies in Dongguan, Guangdong. The purchasing staff said that the purchasing costs of plastic, plastic and rubber materials decreased by 2.1%, 4.2% and 4.0% respectively in the third quarter. In general, compared with the first quarter of 2014, the cost of production materials of enterprises decreased by more than 12%. In addition, since crude oil and related products are also important raw materials for chemical fiber clothing, the production cost of the clothing industry has also decreased, especially for medium and low-end clothing companies with large output and labor-intensive, which have reduced certain costs. In a medium-sized clothing company with more than 3,000 employees in Longgang District, Shenzhen, Mr. Li, the purchasing manager, said: "Compared with the first quarter of 2014, our raw material costs have decreased by 5% to 15%, including cotton cloth and cotton fiber products." After price adjustment: the latest oil price of National V standard in Guangdong Province No. 92 gasoline has decreased by 0.10 yuan per liter to 5.88 yuan per liter.

95-grade gasoline dropped by 0.11 yuan per liter to 6.37 yuan/liter.

0-grade diesel dropped by 0.11 yuan per liter to 5.45 yuan/liter.

Stock market reaction

Negative

Oil and gas sectors still suffer short-term blow

Analysts at China Investment Securities remind that the positive impact of falling oil prices focuses on the medium and long term, not the short term, and also focuses on improving performance and investment value, not speculative value; the impact on various sectors is also different, and it is not the core influencing factor of sectors such as oil and gas, automobiles, and textiles. It can only play a role in supporting and promoting stock prices, and cannot achieve the effect of significantly increasing stock prices in a short period of time.

Professor Lin Boqiang of Xiamen University said: "International oil prices have fallen. The decline in oil prices has lowered the raw material costs of many industries, greatly reducing the operating burden of enterprises.

The decline in oil prices has played a role in the medium and long-term benefits and short-term disadvantages for the oil and gas sector.

Positive

Sector 1: The positive news for aviation logistics continues to ferment

The aviation sector and logistics sector have benefited the most. The three major aviation listed companies have saved hundreds of millions of yuan in fuel costs. China Southern Airlines' performance in the first three quarters has soared by 271%. As oil prices continue to fluctuate at a low level, this positive trend will continue at least until the first half of 2016.

Sector Block 2: The traditional automobile industry is favorably promoted

The impact of low oil prices on the traditional automobile industry is also very large. Oil prices have indeed reduced the cost of car maintenance for residents, which is beneficial to automobile sales; it is not conducive to the trend of new energy automobile stocks.

Block 3: Chemical fiber and textile and clothing industry

Although labor costs have increased, many clothing companies in Dongguan and Zhongshan still claim that the cost of raw materials accounts for more than 20% of their production costs. If they follow the 20%~40% drop in international oil prices, their corresponding production costs will fall by 4% to 8%, which is a considerable amount for low-profit industries.

(Reporter Geng Xujing, Jing Nan)

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