Editor's note: According to Longzhong Information, the National Development and Reform Commission may lower the maximum retail price of refined oil products today and tomorrow (June 8 or June 9). Longzhong expects the reduction to be about 550 yuan/ton, equivalent to 93 #gasoline is 0.42 yuan/liter, and 0# diesel is about 0.47 yuan/liter.

The reduction in oil prices not only includes the transportation industry (including the aviation industry and logistics industry), automobile manufacturing, fertilizer, chemical fiber and plastics industries that are directly affected by oil prices, but also thermal power, agriculture, fishery, etc. Other industries will also benefit from the plunge in oil prices.

Transportation: There is a significant negative correlation between prosperity and oil prices

There is a significant negative correlation between the prosperity of the transportation industry and oil prices. Due to the repeated rise in international oil prices in the early stage, it has put serious pressure on the stock prices of most stocks in the industry (such as aviation, shipping, road transportation, logistics, etc.). Especially in the aviation industry, fuel costs have accounted for the cost of airlines. About 30%. Now that oil prices have plummeted, there will be room for significant reductions in costs in the transportation industry. Transportation stocks, which have been suppressed for a long time and have oversold by too much, will naturally have a good opportunity to rise sharply in the short term.

Recommended attention: Air China (601111), the company accounts for the largest proportion of international routes, and is most directly affected by the rise in international oil prices. Therefore, when oil prices plummet, the stock has benefited the most and fell. Overall profitability is expected to improve in the first half of the year; Bonded Technology (600794), a small-cap low-valued logistics product, will benefit from the expansion of storage tank capacity and preferential income tax policies, which will promote its performance growth; Henderson Daxin (002492), a third-party Chemical logistics service provider, its business is mainly in Zhuhai and Zhenjiang, backed by deep-water ports, its radiation range covers the two economically developed countries of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, and the downstream demand is strong.

Automobiles: Consumption willingness is expected to increase

For the automobile industry, the main reason is that automobile supply and demand are closely related to consumption willingness. In China's extremely competitive automobile market, high oil prices will become a major hindrance to automobile demand. During the early period of high oil prices, consumers' willingness to buy cars dropped significantly. The main reason is that the consumer group in this market segment belongs to the new demand of first-time car buyers, and this group of people is relatively sensitive to rising fuel prices. Now that oil prices have dropped sharply, China's refined oil prices are inevitably expected to fall in the third quarter, which is beneficial to the automobile industry.

The current valuations of complete vehicles and parts in the automotive industry are at historically low levels. Driven by short-term positive factors, the rebound in valuation repair is expected to continue. Operationally, it is recommended to pay attention to: Changan Automobile (000625), Ford's expansion and company integration have become its growth drivers; Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (300100), the company has a complete industrial chain from product research and development to mold design, parts manufacturing, and parts assembly. New orders are good. It is worth mentioning that the stock is undervalued on the GEM.

Fertilizers, chemical fiber plastics: costs will decrease

The raw materials used to produce chemical fertilizers in China are mainly coal, heavy oil, and natural gas, and their raw material costs and energy costs account for the proportion of the cost Very large; chemical fibers use synthetic fiber monomers (polymers) as raw materials, and the price of raw materials is very sensitive to the price of crude oil; the plastic products industry uses basic petrochemical products, such as polyethylene, polypropylene, etc. as raw materials, and the cost of raw materials accounts for the proportion of production costs It is very large, and changes in crude oil prices also have a greater impact on it. Therefore, overall, the high costs of the fertilizer, chemical fiber and plastics industries will also benefit significantly from the drop in oil prices.

Recommended attention: Liaotong Chemical (000059), the company is one of China's large urea manufacturers. Although the Angola restructuring project has been terminated, the company's development prospects are still promising; Xinxiang Chemical Fiber (000949), the company is China's largest viscose filament manufacturer plans to issue two additional issuances in the past two years. At the same time, the company is committed to differentiated development; Wuhan Plastics (000665), the company's cost pressure in the first half of the year, and the decline in oil prices is beneficial to its current main business. In the future After the reorganization, Chutian Digital will achieve backdoor listing.

Other industries: Indirectly benefiting from the drop in oil prices

The decline in oil prices will also contribute to the reduction in costs in other industries such as thermal power, agriculture, and fisheries.

As far as the thermal power industry is concerned, due to the substitution effect of coal for crude oil, the decline in oil prices will often cause the price of coal to fall, thereby reducing the power generation costs of power generation companies. In addition, due to the power shortage and electricity prices this year, With the corresponding increase, there is a rare opportunity to explore the power stocks that have been weak for a long time. It is recommended to pay attention to: Shenergy Co., Ltd. (600642). The power supply and demand situation in East China is tense this year. The average utilization hours of thermal power units in the region may exceed 6,000 hours, and the profits of related companies may improve. Due to the superior performance of the company's units, it will benefit even more.

For other industries such as agriculture and fishery, since they are in the middle and lower reaches of the oil industry chain, the sharp drop in oil prices will also help reduce their overall industry costs. It is recommended to pay attention to: Zhongshui Fisheries (000798), the company's asset injection is expected to be strong. (Excerpted from an article in "Morning News" in June 2011, with some changes.)

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