2017 titanium dioxide industry chain, production status and market trend analysis
2016 titanium dioxide market finally left in the glory of the sound of price increases, 2017 has arrived. In terms of the tradition of previous years, the first half of 17 years, that is, January to March is as always titanium dioxide off-season, although manufacturers are aware of this there are large enterprises have the intention to pull in the off-season, and in early January immediately carried out the first round of New Year price increases, but follow the trend manufacturers are not many. Obviously, manufacturers in January production plan is full, as far as the current point of view, because the New Year is coming, so new orders are less, manufacturers are executing the old orders. Some factory orders have been received in early March, some factory orders to the end of February, generally speaking, the old orders of 16 years are still very sufficient.
At present, about half of January 2017 has passed, the downstream industries have basically been in the state of the New Year, a large number of factories began to shut down, employees began to holiday home for the Spring Festival. Therefore, the main body of downstream consumption units has no intention to take goods, and a small number of willing to take goods have basically placed orders, and then sit and wait for delivery after the New Year. The production plant and the final downstream customers have been waiting for the market after the Spring Festival, then as the upstream ore producers, but also to the end of the year and the staff holiday state, so it is also in the state of closure, is generally waiting for the New Year after the plan.
This round of Spring Festival basically to the end of February 10, the downstream manufacturers to resume production time between February 10 to February 20, some about in early March, very individual in March to resume in mid-March. And to take titanium dioxide for consumption, the main market according to the tradition of previous years are basically in March junior high school or so, but because 16 years of price rises are too fierce, resulting in a large number of downstream customers desperate to buy goods. So now there are about half of the downstream customers have a few months of inventory, in terms of the reality of the downstream market, in March junior high school customers to take goods will not be very strong. In addition, it should be noted that in previous years, it is necessary to wait until May before the peak season, it will show a strong desire to take goods.
For titanium dioxide manufacturers, the whole of China's titanium dioxide production plant has no production plan this Spring Festival, all full throttle to deliver the original order. Then you will encounter a very prominent problem, that is, the existing warehouse can not store so many goods, whether it is the inland production plant, or the coastal production plant of the warehouse basically can only put about half a month of inventory, and even some factories can only put about a week of inventory.
In previous years, such as the New Year in 2015, many titanium dioxide plants are shut down and overhaul through the Spring Festival such a low season, to avoid excessive pressure on goods with precious capital flow. Now in order to hand over 16 years of orders, each is full power production, warehouse explosion is inevitable, after the explosion if the downstream take goods slow, funds are not in place, then the impact on titanium dioxide factory can be imagine.
In summary: The first half of February in the first half of 2017 will be relatively calm, the second half of the month, because of the increase in inventory pressure, some manufacturers will take the initiative to pull up, trying to stimulate the market to take goods in advance. If the price is stable to May, then the whole first half of the year, China's titanium dioxide market is still more interesting.
In the second half of the year, the main turning point in the traditional September and October, if the off-season of 7 and 8 months can be a smooth transition, then September and October this February peak season will not increase very much.
According to the current GDP growth rate of the government of China's economy, the overall economy should be slightly enhanced than in 2016, so that the entire titanium dioxide downstream market usage should at least be flat with 2016, there will not be too much volatility, there will not be such a trough in 2015. So in 2017, China's titanium dioxide will not be in 2016 as a dozen times of continuous growth scenario, generally stable, the supply situation will be more smooth. If there is a price increase, the overall above is not 2016 January two or three times even rise so intense.
Special attention is pull 2016 titanium dioxide rise of the three major factors, foreign titanium dioxide industry production reduction of 400,000 tons (actually 200,000 tons), China's real estate Xiaoyangchun, and titanium dioxide because too low lead to the Spring Festival manufacturers to stop production without inventory, these three are currently in early 2017 no longer exist, 2017 is a solid show of titanium dioxide plant strength of the year.
As for whether 2017 is as analyzed in this article, let's wait and see.