Entering November, China's aggregate MDI market stabilized and rebounded after a rapid decline, but the rally was difficult to maintain, and the bulls and bears were locked in a stalemate.

After the market, the tight supply side caused by the maintenance of manufacturers dissipated, coupled with the demand in the off-season, the aggregate MDI market or continue to consolidate.

Supply side: Maintenance boost limited

Shandong Institute of Industry and information technology professor senior engineer Pan Jinsong introduced, into November, as manufacturers cut factory prices, polymerization MDI market open fast fall mode, only 9 working days a total decline of up to 2000 yuan (ton price, the same below). Among them, the East China market Wanhua product price of 19,300 ~ 19,500 yuan, Shanghai goods price of 18,200 ~ 18,500 yuan. But then Wanhua device maintenance news, polymerization MDI market rebound, currently Wanhua goods to negotiate the price of 19,800 yuan, Shanghai goods to negotiate the price of 19,000 yuan.

From the device operation point of view, the current aggregate MDI overall operating rate reached 83%. The previously repaired Dongcao unit in Japan has resumed production, the first phase of the Shanghai Lianheng unit restarted, and the load of the Shanghai Huntsman and Shanghai BASF units increased gradually. On November 15, the maintenance of the Covestro unit in Shanghai is expected to last 1 to 2 weeks; Wanhua Chemical Ningbo phase I plant will stop on November 27, which is expected to last 45 days, and Phase II plant will stop on December 11, which is expected to last 45 days. Device maintenance parking news once increased the market trading atmosphere, polymerization MDI price was also slightly increased, the range of 500~800 yuan.

Among the foreign MDI devices, except for the MDI device of Hungary's Baosd Chemical Company, which announced force majeure parking on November 17, and the maintenance of Saudi Arabia's Dow and South Korea's BASF devices, most of the other devices are in normal operation. On the whole, the global MDI device operating load is high, the supply is sufficient, the production and sales pressure is not reduced, which is negative for the Chinese market.

For the future market, Pan Jinsong analysis that the good maintenance has been consumed by the market, and the trading atmosphere has become weaker. Coupled with the recent national epidemic situation, the downstream inquiry is becoming more and more cold, under the pressure of shipment, the aggregate MDI market is hopeless, and the weak consolidation will become the mainstream.

Raw material end: Cost accelerated decline

polymerized MDI raw material pure benzene rose to a high of 8800 yuan in October, with the downstream power limit market began to weaken sharply, into November accelerated decline, the current price has fallen below 7000 yuan, it is difficult to bring strong cost support to the polymerized MDI market.

At present, oil benzene by the international crude oil fell sharply, coupled with a significant increase in inventory, the market short-term bearish gathering, bearish sentiment warming. Sinopec pure benzene listed price after the middle of 11 two down a total of 600 yuan, the pure benzene market pressure.

In addition, Dalian Fujia pure benzene device restarted, Shouguang Luqing new device has produced qualified products, the loss of pure benzene maintenance has been reduced, increasing the bearish atmosphere of the market.

"" After crude oil and pure benzene fell sharply, the external lack of support for the market, coupled with the rise of port inventory, downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high. In particular, the downstream expected pure benzene there is room for decline, the lack of enthusiasm for entry, only just need to purchase. It is expected that the pure benzene market is not easy to hit high in the short term, and the low consolidation is mainly, which is difficult to form strong support for the downstream polymerization MDI on the cost surface."" Wang Quanping, chief engineer of Shandong Kenli Petrochemical Group, said.

Demand side: the downstream buying gas is limited

In the early stage, affected by the energy consumption ""double control"", the brake limit superposition of international logistics cost is higher, the supply and demand of the manufacturing industry slowed down at both ends. In particular, the automotive industry is still under great pressure due to the continuous shortage of chip supply, and it is difficult to support the aggregate MDI market on the demand side.

From the current situation, the chip supply has eased slightly, but still can not meet the needs of automobile production, coupled with a high base in the same period last year, so the automobile production and sales in October rose month-on-month, but fell year-on-year. In addition, the orderly power consumption policy implemented by many provinces in the country has also had a certain impact on automobile production.

Statistics show that from January to October, China's automobile production and sales were 20.587 million and 20.97 million, up 5.4% and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively, the growth rate was 2.1 and 2.3 percentage points lower than that from January to September.

From the downstream point of view of polymerized MDI, China's hard foam polyether market entered the fast decline channel, following the raw material epoxy propane wide downward. Raw material propylene oxide is affected by inventory and shipment pressure, the factory is under pressure, and the price continues to drop widely. During the period, although the maintenance news is tested to stabilize, but the downstream demand is weak and the buying gas is limited, and the market only has a small number of small orders to follow up.

In addition, after entering November, as the weather turns cool, the construction of building insulation in some areas is limited, and the downstream demand for hard bubbles is further reduced. At the same time, some areas in the north have entered the ""limited production period"", and the demand for hard bubbles has further weakened, which will become the ""roadblock"" for the rebound of the aggregate MDI market.