Since this year, China's plasticizer market has continued to fall, and some varieties have fallen below the low level since last year, but the market has not yet stabilized and picked up signs. Taking the main varieties as an example, as of now, the price of dioctyl phthalate (DOP) is 7,500 yuan/ton, and the price of dibutyl phthalate (DBP) is 7600 yuan/ton, which is a new low price since last year. The industry believes that with the arrival of the traditional off-season demand, the after-market price of plasticizer still has room to fall.

Supply pressure is difficult to slow

Since the beginning of this year, the plasticizer market has poured in due to its own overcapacity superimposed import sources, and market sentiment is difficult to gather. In the face of high inventory pressure, businesses continue to yield profits, resulting in the market has been in a weak consolidation. Especially after entering April and May, the overall operating rate of plasticizer production enterprises increased by about 5%, the supply of goods increased, the right to speak in the market of enterprises continued to weaken, and the overall price hit a one-year low.

In addition to China's supply pressure, a large influx of foreign products is also another important factor restricting the strength of the market. In the case of the DOP, imports rose 75 per cent in March from a year earlier, while export volumes rose only modestly. With more imports and fewer exports, the market is struggling to find a channel to ease the pressure.

For the future market, Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trade Co., Ltd. analyzed that in late May, the plasticizer industry began to enter the off-season, the demand will become more and more light, the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry is difficult to ease in the short term, and the risk of market correction still exists. However, at present, many products in the plasticizer industry run under the cost line, or struggle near the cost line, the cost pressure continues to increase, will enhance the willingness of production enterprises to support the price, it is expected that the likelihood of a sharp fall in the plasticizer market is smaller.

Raw material support weakening

From the plasticizer raw material butanol point of view, in sufficient supply, new single rare situation, the price continues to decline, it is difficult to give the plasticizer market to cost support.

Zhongyu information analyst Li Yutong analysis, April so far, due to safety and environmental protection inspections led to the overall decline in terminal factory load, the lack of market demand led to industry pessimism. The product inventory level of downstream factories is high, and the procurement of raw materials n-butanol and butanol is more cautious. Although the recent lack of port to ship, coupled with the low level of port inventory, the butanol market has played a certain supporting role, but the lack of downstream demand is still the leading factor in the price decline.

From another raw material anhydride, phthalic anhydride and naphthalene anhydride market also showed a downward trend, including phthalic anhydride long cycle decline, naphthalene anhydride through the stage of rebound again down. For phthalic anhydride, the early market is not smooth, the accumulation of products by manufacturers is obvious, in order to slow down the shipment resistance, the phenomenon of profit is still the same. Although the price of raw materials phthalic anhydride is reduced to make profits for phthalic anhydride, it is still mainly to compensate for the decline, superimposed on the recent naphthalene anhydride downward, under the impact of low prices, the phthalic anhydride market decline will continue.

Insiders believe that the negative factors of plasticizer raw materials are difficult to eliminate in the short term, and the terminal just needs to buy is also limited, there is still room for decline, and it is difficult to form support on the cost plane.

Weak demand lift

Jilin Baoyuan Chemical Trade Co., LTD. Manager Zhang Xu said that plasticizer terminal demand for PVC products has been delayed, is the plasticizer market is difficult to good important factors.

" Environmental protection and safety inspectors become stricter, PVC soft products cable material, hose, artificial leather, packaging products and other industries production and sales restrictions are obvious, while superimposing the upcoming traditional off-season, plasticizer demand will continue to be in a weak state." Zhang Xu said.

In addition, Sino-US trade frictions and export restrictions on plasticizer products containing phthalates have led to continued low construction of key enterprises, which also makes it difficult to increase the demand for plasticizers.

Wang Chunming said that the plasticizer with phthalate as the main component is used more in softening plastic toys. However, with the escalation of trade friction, the export of plastic toys will be limited, and it is difficult to drive the increase in demand for plasticizers.

It is understood that China is the world's largest toy exporter, accounting for more than 80% of the European and American markets. However, the European Union and the United States on the restriction of phthalic plasticizers, coupled with Sino-US trade friction, resulting in China's toy industry exports difficult to see the past glory, the demand for plasticizers continued to reduce, more heavy Chinese raw material market production and sales pressure, become a good plasticizer market stumbling block.

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